Safehaven | Why I'm Not Concerned About My Falling House Value

June 15, 2008

Why I'm Not Concerned About My Falling House Value
by Bill West

6/15/2008 10:31:50 AM

Hello Everybody
What a Wild Week in the Markets

To learn more about my Fat Pitch ETF Advisory, please click here.

Trade Actions:

Buy (2 more PAL) Palladium @ Market
Why? On Thursday Friday there was a MAJOR disconnect between Palladium and Gold and Silver. Evertime you see a disconnect like this, the sleeper Palladium, begins a run. Palladium jumped $30 on the Futures market and Gold dropped $9. Silver dropped 30 cents. Palladium closed above its 9 month moving average by $9. Are the Futures a buy now. Could be, but I would prefer a little more backing and filling before I take a futures position and time it just right. BUT GUESS WHAT ! The ETF ( PAL ) hardly even noticed the Futures jump. So even if the Futures have to digest it's gain, the ETF is screaming BUY.

I will admit, I am not a meat trader. Just do not like the market, although I always seemed to have success in it the few times I do trade it. But I feel that we should have never allowed ourselves to get stopped out of COW. Futures are mixed. Live cattle are up, feeders are down. Hogs are mixed. COW still look like a buy. Let's see if we can buy it @ 44 or better.

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

The US Stock Market probably still has another Major leg to the downside. There might be some backing and filling to the upside, but I believe the Stock Market is in trouble. Still there are pockets of strength, We got filled on FBT Biotech and I believe it will be a survivor in this environment. We also are trying to set up Short positions. We did get a decent entry on the Ultrashort SRS and we doing real well on it. We are also short REM, so we have ( 2 ) short Real Estate positions on, but our attempt to short RCD consumer discretionary is breaking down too fast and does not appear to give us a safe entry, so I have cancelled that recommendation. The same is true for ITB home construction and IAT regional banks. I would like to sell them short, but at what risk. We will also be looking at a few more shorts in the Stock Market. You cannot sell short in an IRA, so I am looking at a couple of funds that you can buy, which are short on that index. Timing is critical for these shorts. I was and still am looking for a little better rally to sell into. Not sure if it will happen though. For those of you that cannot get short an Index, these Short and Ultra short Funds will do that for you. We are looking OK on our Inflation Hedges. Nuclear should perform well. Palladium and Biofuel and Water will definitely kick it up. That is why I would prefer not to have a stop on them.

Speaking of Biofuel, the ETF EXPLODED to the upside for us. DBA ( Agriculture ETF ) also did. That is a fund I mention before about a possible buy. Like it or not Biofuels are here to stay. This is a long-term hold. As a matter of fact, I just might start harvesting the rotten apples in my unkempt orchard and make my own home brewed Biofuel in order to supplement my falling house value. It just might be as profitable as being hedged with ETF's ( short real estate, long Biofuels )

Current Long Portfolio:

Long CGW Global Water @ 25.55	It closed at 24.85	No Stop
Long ( 2 ) PAL Palladium Fund @ 6.55	It closed at 5.26	No Stop
Long SRS Ultrashort Real Estate @ 84.80	It closed at 90.29	No Stop
Long NLR Nuclear Energy @ 32.59	It closed at 33.85	No Stop
Long FUE Elements BioFuel @ 10.0	It closed at 11.3	No Stop
Bought FBT Biotech @ 23.2	It closed at 23.19	No Stop

Current Short Portfolio:

REM Mortgage Real Estate Investments Trust @25.2

It closed at 23.22

No Stop

Recently Closed Positions:

Long DBB @ 25.60	Stopped Out @ 24.5
EWT iShares Taiwan @ 15.65	Stop out @ 16
Long COW iPath Livestock@ 44.39	Stop Out @ 43.5
Long HHJ Emerging Cancer @ 16.28	Stop Out @ 15

NOTE: I will soon be publishing my Track Record.

Thank You

Bill West
Fat Pitch ETF Advisory

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