Safehaven | Treasury Bull on Borrowed Time

November 28, 2008

Treasury Bull on Borrowed Time
by Mike Paulenoff

I must confess that the pattern in the bond market is a bit surprising.

Yield on the 30-year T-bond fell to a low of 3.48% on Friday, which helped to propel the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond (AMEX: TLT) to a new high of 106.30.

Who exactly feels comfortable buying a 30-year piece of paper at less than 3.50% is a mystery in general, but specifically at THIS time, after all of the stimulus and rescue plans, the incredible 24/7 use of the printing presses, and during a period when equities are staging an impressive rally (so far).

From a technical standpoint, the TLTs have created a divergent price peak (with underlying momentum), which warns us that the power of the upmove is dissipating quickly -- although the timing of a pending reversal may be elusive at the moment. Finally, the pattern carved out off the June low looks complete to me, which is yet another warning signal that the TLTs are "on borrowed time," and why our model portfolio remains long the ultrashort version of the TLTs -- the TBTs -- ahead of what I think is an approaching price and yield reaction of significance.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.