Safehaven | Once Again We Are Loaded For Bear

February 15, 2009

Once Again We Are Loaded For Bear
by Bill West

2/15/2009 7:01:47 PM

Hello Everybody

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Trade Actions:

Buy SZK ( Ultra-Short Consumer Goods ) at 85.5 or better
Buy SDD ( Ultra-Short Small Cap ) @ the Market

Market Outlook/Potential Opportunities:

The Stock Market is at a very critical crossroad. My interpretation is the direction is going to be a hard down move. After this hard shakeout I would expect the market to set up a more tradable bottom. That being said I still need to calculate some good stops on these ultrashorts in case I am (wr. wrooo. wroooon. wrong) Boy that was hard to say. Those will be coming shortly if they are not listed already.

By the way somebody wrote me a tongue in check comment about how I could take profits when I only had one profitable position. Things changed in one week as we now have 5 profitable positions and a couple of them are about to explode higher. Entry into a position is not cut and dry. Sometimes going to the market works in your favor and sometimes it backfires. Limit orders usually work best with ETF's but sometimes you will miss a trade or two by using them. A good example is COW. I tried to recommend a short position last month on a limit order. We never got filled. We lost a great opportunity. That happens. But if I say go to the market, we might have to sit for a couple of weeks sweating out a losing position before it turns in our favor.

Current Long Portfolio:

Long FBT ( Biotech ) @ 20	It closed at 21.5
Place a sell stop at 21
Long SRS ( Ultra-Short Real Estate ) @ 58.4	It closed at 68.8
Place a sell stop at 53
Long GAZ Natural Gas @ 45	It closed at 22.8
Long GLD { Gold ) @ 89.90	It closed at 92.6
Long USO ( Oil ) @ 32	It closed at 25.6
Long SKF ( Ultra-Short Financials ) @ 130	It closed at 145.5
Place a sell stop at 120
Long FXP ( Ultra-Short China ) @ 40	It closed at 36.3
Long EWV ( Ultra-Short Japan ) @ 82	It closed at 90.5
Place a sell stop at 78

Current Short Portfolio:
None

Recently Closed Positions

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Thank You

Bill West
Fat Pitch ETF Advisory

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