Safehaven | More Weakness Likely for SP 500

March 20, 2009

More Weakness Likely for SP 500
by Mike Paulenoff

The S&P 500 had an interesting week. In the aftermath of the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, the SPX climbed to 803.24 to make new recovery highs off of the March low. However, let's notice that the high for the week failed to penetrate significant resistance represented by the declining 10-week moving average and the Jan-Mar down trendline, and, in fact, reversed to the downside to close the week at 768.54. The SPX closed about 18 points off of the low and about 35 points off of the high of the week, which suggests strongly that 'distribution' and profit-taking have emerged after the failure to hurdle the above-mentioned key resistance levels. My sense right now is that more weakness is directly ahead that should press the SPX to at least 740-735.

ETF traders may short the SPY via the ProShares Single Leveraged Short S&P (NYSE: SH), as my intermediate-term work is warning me that after a meaningful correction of the March upmove (that started two weeks ago), another upleg in that instrument will emerge.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.