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April 26, 2009

Bulls Remain in Control
by Mike Paulenoff

The PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ) continue to act very strong as they make new recovery highs at 33.93 in an effort to accelerate to the upside away from the neckline (31.80) of the huge base pattern shown in the attached daily chart. My next optimal resistance "challenge" for the Q's will occur along the declining 200 DMA, now at 34.40, on the way to my measured pattern target zones at 35.00/30 and 37.50/80.

A decline below 33.00 will weaken the near-term uptrend structure, while a decline that sustains beneath critical support between 32.00 and 31.80 will reverse the uptrend altogether.

Moving over to the S&P 500, the 4-hour bar chart of the e-mini index futures shows the series of higher-highs and higher-lows carved out during the past five weeks. The rally off of Tuesday's low at 823 into Friday's high at 868.75 has not (yet?) climbed to a new high, which will by definition extend the existing uptrend.

If for any reason the e-Mini S&P 500 fails to move higher on Sunday evening and instead declines beneath 852.00, I will get signals that the near-term trend is shifting from up to sideways. A decline that breaks 831.25 will signal that the uptrend is rolling over into the start of a significant correction.

For now, however, the bulls remain very much in control, and more than likely will attempt to propel prices to new highs on Sunday night. Whether or not the new highs are sustainable will be the key question.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.