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May 05, 2009

What Bull Market???
by Marty Chenard

Some people are saying ...

"It's a new Bull Market!"
"This is the beginning of a new Super Bull Market."
"The banks are fixed, and the housing market drop is over."

It was just a few months ago that some were wailing that our whole financial system was close to collapsing. And now, everything is solid, safe, and functioning again?

Bernanke is testifying this morning about the banks. This morning's headlines were: "About Ten US Stress Test Banks Need Capital U.S. regulators have deemed that about ten of the 19 U.S. banks being stress tested will need to raise more capital,according to a source familiar with official talks. (The Fed is scheduled to release results of stress tests on the 19 largest banks on May 7th.)

Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR Capital Markets Corp. and former bank examiner said that he believed the number of banks will reach 14 ... not the "about" 10 being reported. (About was a carefully chosen government word.) Quietly and at the same time, a Federal Reserve Report just showed that "most" U.S. banks expect loan delinquencies and losses to increase this year.

Worth noting: Real GDP growth declined 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009. Consumer spending accounts for 72% of the U.S. economy, so the end to this recession will not occur without consumers going back into a buying modality.

In spite of everything ... yes, we have a rally. A rally where the S&P 500 has been very strong.

So, is this a Bear Market rally or a Bull Market Rally for the S&P 500??

According to a simple weekly model of the S&P versus its Relative Strength, the market is having a Bear Market Rally.

Quite simply, the last Bear Market rally did not end until our zero based C-RSI entered positive territory. As you can see in today's chart, the current strength is not close to being at a Bull Market level.

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Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

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