Safehaven | Whats It Gonna Be? | Printer Friendly Version

May 20, 2009

Whats It Gonna Be?
by John Law

12 of the last 14 post-election yrs, as the S&P index goes in January so goes the year!

9th year of decade is generally an up year for stocks with DJIA down only 3 times in last 12 decades!

Bottoms occur in the second year of a term of new president, if delayed occurs in the third year of their second term, if we've seen the bottom (March 9) or on a re-test of the March low and failure occurs, a lower bottom in 2009 breaks precedent.

Kennedy's low - 62'
Johnson's low- 66'
Nixon's low- 70'
Nixon/Ford low -74'
Carter's low- 78'
Reagan's low 82', 87' (third year second term)
Bush's low- 90'
Clinton's low-94', 98' (third year second term)
Bush's low- 02', 07' (third year second term)

The author believes that a March re-test will fail and we will see lower lows, but that 2010 will bring bottom (second year of term of new president).

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John Law