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May 24, 2009

Igniting Silver and Gold
by Mike Paulenoff

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) hit my initial upside trading target zone of 42.50 in the aftermath of its upside breakout from 39.00/55 mid-week. The GDX has confirmed its breakout from a multi-month base pattern, which has optimal (non-specific timeframe) projections into the 53.00-55.00 target zone. From a near-term perspective, the next target is 45.00. If one of the patented downside swoons occurs, the GDX should hold support at 40.00-39.50 ahead of the next significant upside pivot reversal.

The iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV) gapped up on Friday after Thursday's powerful key upside reversal session that initiated a new upmove within the dominent upleg off of the April 17 low at 11.64. The pattern from the April

17 upside pivot argues for still more strength into the 14.80-15.00 target zone.

Apart from the SLV technicals, the "wild card" could very well be the dollar, which conservatively points to 1.4100 from its current level of 1.400/05, but has measured projections to 1.4500-1.4600. If the dollar continues to weaken and enters a disorderly stage of near-panic selling pressure, then who knows what kind of combustion could ignite under silver (and gold) prices?

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.