Safehaven | XLF Needs to Break Its Down Trendline

August 01, 2009

XLF Needs to Break Its Down Trendline
by Mike Paulenoff

The big picture of the Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF) shows that the recovery thus far has not yet challenged the dominant bear market down trendline, which cuts across the price axis at approximately 14.30 as we speak. Should the XLF seek out a test of its major down trendline in the next two weeks, the price structure will have to climb another 10%. Of course, to do that the index will have to climb above its prior recovery rally peak at 13.05, which should trigger acceleration towards the test of the 2 year down trendline. If the upmove exceeds the trendline at 14.30, my work will trigger higher intermediate term swing targets at 15.30 and then 18.00.

From an intermediate term perspective, only a decline the breaks the July low at 10.83 will totally wreck the current technical set-up. For position purposes, however, a decline that breaks key near term support at 12.50/45 will damage the most immediate technical set-up, which will cause me to exit our model portfolio long position.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.