Safehaven | Are we Close to a Cycle Shift?

September 18, 2009

Are we Close to a Cycle Shift?
by Marty Chenard

What index is 2.35% away from closing a very important gap that occurred in October of last year?

The answer: The SPY (ETF) with a gap that will be closed when the SPY reaches 109.68.

At the close yesterday, the SPY was at 107.16 which was 2.52 points, and 2.35% away from closing the gap.

As we approach the event, what phase is the SPY's short term cycle at? See the next chart.

This is our short term cycle chart going back to August 18th. There are 2 cycles that work together to confirm each other. The white vertical lines show the beginning of an up cycle and the red vertical lines show the beginning of a down cycle. When the 3 and 6 exponential moving averages (EMAs) merge, then it is time to be cautious or take profits as a cycle turn could be nearby.

So, where are we now? The EMA's were still okay yesterday, but the cycles where showing the possibility of wanting to turn down. Indeed, the cycles do show the best or safest part of the run has already occurred since September 8th. A little caution here would not be a bad thing.

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Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

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