Safehaven | Eye on Gold and the Short SPY

September 19, 2009

Eye on Gold and the Short SPY
by Mike Paulenoff

We've had an interest in the long gold (GLD) and short SPY (SH) trades this week, where we gained several percentage points on the former and were flat the latter.

Monday's action in the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) should provide us with valuable information about the near-term trend now that the price structure has backed away from 100 (again) and is en route to test key support at 98.30/00. A sustained break of 98.30/00 will indicate that the GLD is in the grasp of a meaningful correction of the August-September upleg, which has targets at 97.50/20 and then 96.30/00.

During the past two sessions, the ProShares Single-Levered Short SPY (NYSE: SH) has traded in a range between 56.00/10 and 55.50/30, which either represents a bearish consolidation area within the still dominant SH Sept downtrend or a minor base pattern ahead of a recovery rally to 57.00/50 initially. So far, the price behavior acts like the former, while a climb above 56.10 is needed to trigger upside acceleration.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.