Safehaven | Biggest Bank Heist, Dreams Come True For the Best

November 19, 2006

Biggest Bank Heist, Dreams Come True For the Best
by Boris Chikvashvili

Note. Usage of the chart (published every morning at http://borisc.blogspot.com )

Buy pressure at extreme, buy, especially in the bull market wait 0-2 days
Sell Pressure at extreme, sell, especially in the bearish market wait 1-4 days
Use "buyaverage" (cyan line) to gage your level of bullishness. When it is hit by red line "buypressure" from below be bearish and visa-versa.

See how well that worked on this chart? Why give it free?
Cause, great 12 century Georgian poet/philosopher(Shota Rustavely) said...

you get only what you give
From Original (You find what you give, all else is lost)

11/17/2006
INDU - 12375, resistance THERE! , SPX -1404.00 resistance, THERE!
BKX - 114.60, 120-122 resistance, Biggest Bank Heist of 21st Century. Get ready.
JPM - 48.85 resistance , Ever so close, ever so far, For months pure soul struggles.
XAU - 122, 103-105 support, 122 is still holding, like Stalingrad.
GOLD -555, 470 support not relevant soon, Vulnerable until Feb 2007.
TNOTE - 4.0 keep thinking unlikely, but could get there, some detour first?
$Dollar - 94, resistance, yeah, very unlikely, support - 80 meantime on sell.
OIL- 55 support, after calling top at 80 we stuck to 55 as low. GOTIT!

Our Proprietary Indicator BUY-SELL-PRESSURE is at the extreme so are others . The Sentiment indicators, absolutely and, especially relatively, are pointing to correction. Also COT (Commodity Traders Commitments) data points to imminent downturn. Fibonacci ratios are nothing short of amazing I could get tired depicting graphs of major indexes and stocks that show golden ratios. For one example look at "Catch 22"... Did You? S&P Graph. You know who mentioned this early.

Mar2000High-Oct2002Low 132 Weeks
Oct2002Low-Nov2006High? 213 Weeks
Total Weeks 345, can you permute 132? -> 213, can you count 12345?
There are 987 Fibonacci Weeks from Oct-18-2006 to Black October 1987
Oh! Yes, Almost forgot 213/132 = 1.61363636... Solid GOLD.

We are within the range of possible top days, which may stretch to Nov28 or Dec03 ±2 days.

Since childhood you had a secret dream... Rob the bank get away with millions in a suitcase and live happy ever after. Well, this is your chance!

Here is what you do.
Watch the buy sell pressure chart at http://borisc.blogspot.com/ everyday and follow the rules outlined above. Add to that your own short-term trading savvy and sell the bank stocks timely.
You will be hero in your own eyes and you will tell the story to your grandchildren.
Good Luck.

As usual, I caution you, if you do not know how to run and trade. Forget the above.

The leaders of this market have struggled and the music could stop any minute.
Watch the following drivers.
- BKX 114.60 Resistance, We alerted you to this level more than a month ago!
- JPM 48.85 Resistance, Ditto here.
- MER/GS/BSC/MS, These have advanced to the designated limits.
- UTILities turned down around 450. Anyway, who can retire on 3%
- AAPL is at the resistance.
- GOOG is at 2-7% from the resistance. Other inter-niets??? have upside room.
- REITS may have finally had it. Ditto PRIVATE CAPITAL.

STOCKS
Today we focus on world indices.
TA100 - Tel-Aviv 100 Index ... 935 TRIPLE WITCHING.

up 200% from 2003 low
decennial resistance at 940
annual resistance at 937

DAX German market index 6452, 2% away from 200% up (2003). At resistance
FTSE UK market index 6257 5% away from 100% up (2003). At resistance
NIKKEI Japan market index 16091 retrace 80% wave 2 of downturn from 5/2006
Wave 3 down. Weakest of bunch! And leading the rest into 10/2007 low?

BONDS
Bonds are range bound for a while, but will move up when the market falters.
Signal? Dive in consumer confidence. Keep some short durations for insurance.

DOLLAR
Still in the range, but on the weekly and daily sell.
Keep the short (EURO long) with the stops as per http://borisc.blogspot.com
Never reversed 27% (tighten stops recommended) for us to abandon the shorts.

GOLD
We should be long in gold 25% remaining holdings. Out of XAU with nice profits
On final 25% holdings. Gold can go either way here. Just wait for signals. If 630 and 660 broken (on closing bases) a quick trip to 900, or downturn to 550 again into February.

OIL
We are out in OIL since 80, but if you repurchased XOI when we advised you would still be long in 25% of holdings in XOI or its components. Keep the stops as per http://borisc.blogspot.com. (27 % retrace for now).
After catching the OIL top at 80. Now we may have grabbed the low at precisely 55.05! (for weeks/months we sited this as an ultimate support) OIL stocks may get the support they need from CRUDE. But it seems to me that we need correction first.

The long-term portfolio is...

75% CASH+SHORT-TERM-BONDS (the economy will break sooner or later).
10% GOLD good up move (core holding, your life depends on it)
5% TRUSTS (reduce on this rally) (recovered nicely)
10% PIPELINES (delivering profits)

ETFS THAT HAVE UPSIDE ROOM (not a recommendation to buy, yet)

HHH Internet Holders
DBH Broadband Holders
BBH Biotech Holders
OIH OIL Services Holders
XLE Energy Select
SMH Semiconductor Holders (I did not expect look at this now?)
XLK Technology Select (Did I go crazy, SUNW and CSCO will shine again?!)
Tell me though, is putting JAVA software in public domain the way?
PPH Pharma Select (Nobody is afraid of Billary anymore?)
XLU Utilities Select (I do not think so, but comes up OK if it breaks overhead).

What we see above is that if there is going to be an act two for the bull market into March/2007 it will be on the back of the TECH. As a person of rich tech background, you did not hear me talk about it too much, did you?

Boris Chikvashvili
borisc.blogspot.com

In short... I was supposed to be a theoretical physicist (Russia+Jerusalem Hebrew University, MS Physics, with distinction, toyed with QUARKS). Somewhere on the road to PHD I have discovered, first the Computers - at Carnegie Mellon University (MS EE, Fathered UNIX, adopted WINDOWS), and second Finance on Wall Street.President ITI,(Computer/Finance Consulting Firm) Consulted AT&T,IBM,SUN,CITIBANK,JP MORGAN, LEHMAN, MICROSOFT. Designed/implemented Trading Systems - BLOOMBERG LLP. There is nothing more to say professionally speaking.

Please Note: The opinions expressed here are only for education purposes and do not constitute the advice in any shape of form.

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