Safehaven | Goldman To Silverman | Printer Friendly Version

December 03, 2006

Goldman To Silverman
by Boris Chikvashvili

China Stops Here.

Note. Usage of the chart (published every morning at http://borisc.blogspot.com).

Buy pressure at extreme, buy, especially in the bull market wait 0-2 days
Sell Pressure at extreme, sell, especially in the bearish market wait 1-4 days
Use "buyaverage" (cyan line) to gage your level of bullishness. When it is hit by red line "buypressure" from below be bearish and visa-versa.

See how well that worked on this chart? Why give it free?
Cause, great 12 century Georgian poet/philosopher (Shota Rustavely) said...

you get only what you give
From Original (You find what you give, all else is lost)

12/03/2006
INDU - 12375, resistance THERE!, SPX -1404.00 resistance, THERE!
BKX - 114.60, 120-122 resistance, Biggest Bank Heist of 21st Century. Did You?.
JPM - 48.85 resistance, Ever so close, ever so far, For months pure soul struggles.
XAU - 122, 103-105 support, 122 is still holding, like Stalingrad.
GOLD -555, Vulnerable until Mar 2007.
TNOTE - 4.0 keep thinking unlikely, but could get there, some detour first?
$Dollar - 94, resistance, yeah, very unlikely, support - 82-80, on sell.
OIL- 55 support, after calling top at 80 we stuck to 55 as low. GOTIT!.

Our Proprietary Indicator BUY-SELL-PRESSURE is not indicating the end of the decline yet. BUY-PRESSURE needs to go much higher before we start thinking long again, but that could happen with one powerful day down. So stay tuned daily to http://borisc.blogspot.com.

Dear readers, we like to remind you that, while we provide you opinions, as everybody else, we provided you with the most profitable advise, that has openly been provided to public, "in public". Right here in these pages and at our site hundreds and thousands have seen a minor miracle of making money in OIL/GOLD/STOCKS/CURRENCY/BONDS etc, in months/days and often minutes.

We do not know if we are smart or lucky, but in this business it takes the first to get the later. That we believe in. We will not enumerate the profitable trades here, in part because there were too many of them.

We know we cannot rest on the past, so what now?

For starters, please reread the article Biggest Bank Heist to refresh on all the resistance and support levels. See how long they stood as a guide to all of us.

Now, look at what happened last week. The Goldman Sachs (GS) that represents the symbol of the financial bubble of the Wall Street has topped? At 2003! (the area we projected in percentage terms). So what does that have to do with "Goldman to Silverman" part of the title of this article? No Goldman and Silverman do not talk as one might infer. Goldman is simply morphing into Silverman... That is what I think is going to happen once/when this made up bull market is done. So it is not Goldman telling Silverman that "China Stops Here". No, it is me telling you that China stops here. Even the most hard-core doomsters have lately joined the China bullish ranks. Not a day goes buy that I get 10 emails about investing in China ETFs of all kinds. So I am telling you now... China stops either here or very close to "here". I would give it maximum 10% upside and be careful, I beg you be careful!

Bravest of you may look for a short term strength in FXI and short it. If you do not want to do it on your own, then tune to http://borisc.blogspot.com, you may find us guide you into selling this beast.

Caution, the world may go crazier and Goldman Sachs could still go to 245-250 like the biggest CNBC clown says, but he also said to buy the banks just a day after I asked you to rob them Biggest Bank Heist. It is you choice either you trust him in blind faith or follow us step by step whether we go to 250 (we do have one of these targets, believe it or not) or 100.

Quickies...
- BKX 114.60 Resistance, We hope you took a lot of money in the heist!
- JPM 48.85 Resistance, Most of profits must have come here.
- MER/GS/BSC/MS, These have advanced to the designated limits. YES.
- UTILities turned down around 450. May go higher, lot of yield hungry people.
- AAPL does not allow shorts yet. Apple a day is still the rule...
- GOOG is at 2-7% from the resistance. Still has unrealized potential.
- REITS may have finally had it. Ditto PRIVATE CAPITAL. Hungry people or not
these are close to an end.

STOCKS
Today we focus on world indices.
TA100 - Tel-Aviv 100 Index ... 935 TRIPLE WITCHING.

up 200% from 2003 low
decennial resistance at 940 , WAS HIT, FALLING Today...
annual resistance at 937

DAX German market index 6452, 2% away from 200% up(2003). At resistance
FTSE UK market index 6257 5% away from 100% up(2003). At resistance
NIKKEI Japan market index 16091 retrace 80% wave 2 of downturn from 5/2006
Wave 3 down. Weakest of bunch! And leading the rest into 10/2007 low?
None of these big bourses are at the highs.

BONDS
Bonds are range bound for a while, but will move up when the market falters.
Signal? Dive in consumer confidence. Keep some short durations for insurance.
Can Dollar collapse force the hands of GROSS(PIMCO)/FUSS(LOOMIS)/CHINA and FED behemoths. I think Yields could back up a bit in here.

DOLLAR
AMERICA FOR SALE, thanks Mr. Bernanke, You are doing better than Houdini.
Collapsed, as many of my fellow bears would have liked it. But careful correction could start here before this train goes to 80.
Keep the short (EURO long) with the stops as per http://borisc.blogspot.com
We are still short 2/3 of original position.

GOLD
We should be long in gold 25% Just keep it with the 27% retracement stop rules. Gold can go either way here. Just wait for signals. If 660 broken(on closing bases) a quick trip to 900, or downturn to 580 again into February/March.

OIL
We are still long in 25% of holdings in XOI or its components. Keep the stops as per http://borisc.blogspot.com. ( 27 % retrace for now ).

We have already alerted on our site that CVX at ~73 and XOI at ~122 are approaching a formidable WALL. The only way we overcome that if the Middle East blows up... and it could. I do not have any inside information, in-spite of what you may believe, but I feel something, not so good, could be coming our way. Ditto for GOLD. In any case, if melt-up does not come I do not expect a crash in OIL, perhaps a trading range 50/60.

The long-term portfolio is...

85% CASH+SHORT-TERM-BONDS ( the economy will break sooner or later ).
10% GOLD good up move (core holding, your life depends on it)
5% PIPELINES (delivering profits)

No sectors analysis today, but one sector comes to my mind in a favorable light.
One way or the other there will be a lot of dead. So, buy the Funeral companies (so called personal services companies).

Sorry, to finish on this note, but you would not want to read me unless I express what I feel.

Boris Chikvashvili
borisc.blogspot.com

In short... I was supposed to be a theoretical physicist (Russia+Jerusalem Hebrew University, MS Physics, with distinction, toyed with QUARKS). Somewhere on the road to PHD I have discovered, first the Computers - at Carnegie Mellon University (MS EE, Fathered UNIX, adopted WINDOWS), and second Finance on Wall Street.President ITI,(Computer/Finance Consulting Firm) Consulted AT&T,IBM,SUN,CITIBANK,JP MORGAN, LEHMAN, MICROSOFT. Designed/implemented Trading Systems - BLOOMBERG LLP. There is nothing more to say professionally speaking.

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