S&P 500 Analysis for week of 4/25/11
Current Primary Trend: Bull Signal - Initiated Sept. 13th
The Primary Trend chart determines our long term market strategy of being long or in cash. The PT is the primary trend. Once the medium term trend is in the same direction as the PT chart we then enter the market. Short-term information should assist in your execution of trades. Take the emotion out of your investment decisions. Implementing a trend-following crossover strategy - has no guess work, no sophisticated technical analysis, and no judgement.
Short-Term Trend: (time frame - days to weeks) - 5 day above/below 10 day EMA crossover confirmation
Medium-Term Trend: (time frame - weeks to months) - 5 day above/below 35 EMA - Determines timing: exits, entries and re-entry. Use in correlation with the PSTS overall primary trend. Bottom 3 indicators can sometimes give a heads up.
Primary Trend: (time frame - months to years ) Less cautious investors can purchase back in when the slow scholastics moves above the 20 with the MACD above the 9 week average. Conservative investors can get out when the ADX, Force and MACD turn negative before the EMA crosses.
We feel the S&P 500 data gives the broader view of the market.
- NASDAQ usually leads both the up and down market trends.
- Its estimated that 70% of trades are done by High Frequency platforms. Total volume of the NYSE consist of about 28% of the total market volume with around 85% of the NYSE being institutional volume. The NYSE still has the largest institutional investor up/down volumes and should provide a hint at the big institutions buying and selling. (volume accumulation/distribution)
- Indices Summary Charts
Risk-Reward Advisor
MARKET CORE STRENGTH INDEX (MCSI)
Week of 4/25/2011 - version1.07
27/30 - 90%
- bullish zone: 21-30 - 70%
- caution zone: 10 to 20
- danger zone: 0 to 9 - 30%
MCSI: Within the context of the current uptrend, technicals indicate short-term strength - Market breadth, price and momentum indicators all went up. Intermediate term indicators still need to confirm. (ADX - Bullish % - Nasdaq Summation Index - TRIX(14,9))
- Primary Long-Term Trend: Bull
- Intermediate-Term Trend: Bull
- Short-term Trend: Bull
Opinion: Trend model shows the short-term outlook has improved. The MCSI showed internal strength for the week after Mondays' weakness. S&P500 support ~1289 level then 1249. We still need to break above1344 resistance. We wait for what the house deals for a hand next week, & see if the odds increase or decrease.
Comments: If the market doesn't break above 1344, we most likely will retrace to test even lower lows then we did in March. We have been trading sideways for a while now. Whatever way the market breaks the next time we believe may be the direction we will be going in for a while, also it may be quite a large move as we have been in this sideways trading pattern for a while.
Remain cautious till we get a clear signal. S&P 500 chart says it all! Bulls were in short-term control of the week. Intermediate-term trend is bullish but our opinion is to consider it neutral till we break one way or another. Just like last year? Dollar lower, Gold and Silver continue strongly up. RISK management is the hallmark of a successful portfolio.
Bull vs. Bear
- The four-year presidential cycle
- Slight housing gains
- March Leading Index Improves
- Seasonality: buy in the fall go away in May
- POMO: ends June 30th
- U.S. & European sovereign debt crisis
- Signs of inflation are unmistakable-this cant be good news.
The core strength index includes 18 support indicators. Closing Friday market data of individual indicators is used to to analyze support for the following week. The supporting data show support of the current trends' internal strengths. View this information as a checkup of the markets current condition. Seeking to diagnose general or specific risks that may affect Mr. Markets health. Daily data if required can be tallied from our word doc/links. Total score of the index will be posted along with its' sentiment rating. The core indicators are rated individually and as group sentiment rating (Bullish,Bearish). For our Market Driver links go to page 2
All of our opinions are that, an opinion. Use your own analysis of the market condition indicators. Trend & MCSI Risk Model - Information
