Sovereign Credit Risks: Focus On China Banks and More on Greece

By: Richard Shaw | Tue, Jul 5, 2011
Print Email

China is attempting to slow its economy to minimize inflation and the risks of a property bubble, and to improve the underwriting practices and solvency of its banks.

The debate about China involves questions of a soft landing or a hard landing as the result of government efforts, and the impact on China of signs of moderating world economic growth.

New credit rating agency actions with respect to Greece and Portugal today, following the statements by Standard and Poor's yesterday, escalate concerns about a credit event that could trigger credit default swap contracts and impair the banking system in Europe, with consequential follow-on impacts to banking globally.

European sovereign credit risks have a time frame of days or weeks for a market event (as well as long-term lingering risks of subsequent market impact). China's banking issues have a longer time horizon, probably on the order of quarters and possibly years for a market event.

Sovereign Credit Risks: Focus On China Banks and More on Greece



Richard Shaw

Author: Richard Shaw

Richard Shaw

Richard Shaw

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in this material and our disclosed positions are as of July 5, 2010. Our opinions and positions may change as subsequent conditions vary. We are a fee-only investment advisor, and are compensated only by our clients. We do not sell securities, and do not receive any form of revenue or incentive from any source other than directly from clients. We are not affiliated with any securities dealer, any fund, any fund sponsor or any company issuer of any security. All of our published material is for informational purposes only, and is not personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. We utilize information sources that we believe to be reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance, and there is no guarantee that any forecast will come to pass. Do not rely solely on this material when making an investment decision. Other factors may be important too. Investment involves risks of loss of capital. Consider seeking professional advice before implementing your portfolio ideas.

IMPORTANT NOTE: We are a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not sell investments or control client assets. We are professional advisors compensated on an hourly basis or flat fee basis for portfolio management or for our coaching advice. Clients for personal investment advice receive recommendations and guidance tailored to their specific needs. Newsletters and research publications, are not personal investment advice, are generic in nature and should not be interpreted as specific advice for any specific person or situation. In our research, we utilize information sources that we believe are reliable, but do not warrant the accuracy of those sources or our analysis. Research, data and opinions expressed on this site are for information purposes only, are general in character and are not advice specific to any individual investor.

Copyright 2008-2017 by QVM Group LLC All rights reserved.

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright ©