Any Rabbits Left in the Hat?
Inquiring minds are pouring over the ESM Treaty to see how it is supposed to work in theory, assuming it will be ratified by counties with the required 90% of EMU voting rights.
Given that Spain is supposed to get €100 billion from the ESM, some might be surprised to learn ESM Still Not Ratified by Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia, Netherlands
Finland is missing from the above group. Finland has signed but not yet ratified the treaty and May Ask for Collateral for Spanish Banking Bailout
Political football is holding up treaty ratification in Germany, with the opposition demanding a Financial Transaction Tax in return for passage.
Assuming the treaty passes, please turn your attention to Article 41.
ARTICLE 41 ... payment of paid-in shares of the amount initially subscribed by each ESM Member shall be made in five annual instalments of 20 % each of the total amount. The first instalment shall be paid by each ESM Member within fifteen days of the date of entry into force of this Treaty. The remaining four instalments shall each be payable on the first, second, third and fourth anniversary of the payment date of the first instalment.
Reader Brett who pointed out that provision writes ...
The ESM total budget for 5 years is 700 billion euros. That means for 2012 the ESM will be able to contribute 140 billion euros. I have shown the breakdown by country (listed in Annex II) and amended another column to show their first contribution.
Spain is clearly in no position to assist their own banks so we can forget about their contribution. We can also forget about contributions from Greece for obvious reasons, and Portugal whose sovereign debt is rated as junk status by S&P.
Capital Contribution Analysis
|ESM Member||Capital subscription (EUR)||2012 Contribution (20%)|
|Kingdom of Belgium||€ 24,339,700,000.00||€ 4,867,940,000|
|Federal Republic of Germany||€ 190,024,800,000.00||€ 38,004,960,000|
|Republic of Estonia||€ 1,302,000,000.00||€ 260,400,000|
|Ireland||€ 11,145,400,000.00||€ 2,229,080,000|
|Hellenic Republic||€ 19,716,900,000.00||€ 3,943,380,000|
|Kingdom of Spain||€ 83,325,900,000.00||€ 16,665,180,000|
|French Republic||€ 142,701,300,000.00||€ 28,540,260,000|
|Italian Republic||€ 125,395,900,000.00||€ 25,079,180,000|
|Republic of Cyprus||€ 1,373,400,000.00||€ 274,680,000|
|Grand Duchy of Luxembourg||€ 1,752,800,000.00||€ 350,560,000|
|Malta||€ 511,700,000.00||€ 102,340,000|
|Kingdom of the Netherlands||€ 40,019,000,000.00||€ 8,003,800,000|
|Republic of Austria||€ 19,483,800,000.00||€ 3,896,760,000|
|Portuguese Republic||€ 17,564,400,000.00||€ 3,512,880,000|
|Republic of Slovenia||€ 2,993,200,000.00||€ 598,640,000|
|Slovak Republic||€ 5,768,000,000.00||€ 1,153,600,000|
|Republic of Finland||€ 12,581,800,000.00||€ 2,516,360,000|
|Total||€ 700,000,000,000.00||€ 140,000,000,000|
|Total Less Spain||€ 123,334,820,000|
|Total Less Spain + Greece||€ 119,391,440,000|
|Total Less Spain + Greece + Portugal||€ 115,878,560,000|
Subtract Italy crippled with a 120% debt to GDP ratio and Borrowing money at 4-5% to Lend to Spain at 3% and you are under the €100 billion mark.
Even including Italy, the fund for 2012 is nearly all spent.
What happens if Spain needs €350 billion as per analysis from JPMorgan?
What Happens if Italy needs a bailout?
Are there any rabbits left in the hat?