Update 20th November 2012
1. Personal Note
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2. Update
Arguments for lower prices:
- 3rd attempt (within 11 months) to take out heavy resistance around US$1,790.00-1,800.00 failed and Gold clearly broke down from bearish wedge in October
- COT Data again pretty bearish for gold and silver
- Mining Stocks crashed down through support and 200-MA
- US-Dollar in short term uptrend since mid of september, so far no clear trend reversal
- Recession in Europe, slower demand from China and India
Arguments for higher prices:
- Gold & Silver bounced impulsively from oversold levels. This price action has a very bullish character.
- Gold clearly above 200-MA (US$1,665.66)
- Reversal at Fibonacci retracement, this confirms "correction" within uptrend
- Gold/Silver ratio heading lower again, creates MACD buy signal for precious metals
- Longer term Gold in similar correction pattern like 2008/2009. Breakout to US$2,000.00 expected to happen in summer 2013
- New uptrend in precious metals since august 2012 that should carry gold up to US$1,850.00 and 1,900.00 until spring 2013.
- US-Dollar Death Cross (long-term 200-MA broke above its short-term 50-MA in mid of october). This signals dollar weakness!
- November very bullish seasonals. Seasonality until spring very promising.
- Never fight the FED. Unlimited QE -> money printing all over the world will push asset prices in all sectors higher...
- Throughout history, periods of massive money creation have always been inflationary and this time should be no different.
- Santa Claus/Year End Rally has probably started yesterday
- massive tension and escalation in middle east (Israel & Gaza, maybe Egypt and other states to get involved ...???)
Conclusion:
- After the initial impulsive bounce from oversold levels Gold has been consolidating between US$1,740.00 and US$1,705.00 in a bullish fashion. Now Gold looks ready to break out above US$1,740.00 very soon. This breakout will start a heavy wave of buying/short covering and should bring gold very fast to next resistance at US$1,790.00 / US$1,800.00. Here another setback must be expected. Overall I continue to believe that Gold will move up to US$1,850.00 and around 1,900.00US$ until spring 2013.
- Any break below US$1,705.00 and especially US$1,696.00 would be very bearish but is not expected.
Long term:
- Nothing has changed
- Precious Metals bull market continues and is moving step by step closer to the final parabolic phase (could start in 2013 & last for 2-3 years or maybe later)
- Price target DowJones/Gold Ratio ca. 1:1
- Price target Gold/Silver Ratio ca. 10:1
