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SP500, break out or fade

Which Way Now?

The SP500 is posting all time high prices. For the third time in 14 years we are back at 1575. Which way now?

No doubt your financial advisor will say, indexes are for the media, don't follow them, you need to invest to protect yourself from inflation.

In fact this is partly true, the 100 year return for stocks on average is equal, not better, not less than the 100 year inflation rate. So go ahead, load up on stocks if you are 15 years old. If you're over 50 then the game is a little shorter, as the 'long term play' is beyond your lifespan (me too).

What now for the SP500? Break out to 1600, and suffer a possible pullback. Or maybe a pullback now to 1500 then another go on a charge for 1600. The best response is that markets do not move in straight lines all the time, there will be a pullback and that is the time to consider fund allocations. Right now we are in a straight line. So RTT is watching and waiting, to allow our RTT Market Timer to show us the way.

The eagle view of the SP500.

SP500 Chart
Larger Image

The above chart is a close up view of this chart below.

SP500 Chart
Larger Image

 


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