The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Apr 14, 2013
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Last week, based on our analysis of the cyclical behavior of market internals, we cautioned against keeping a bearish stance. On Monday, the tide shifted and now the pendulum has swung the other way:

CIT Dates Chart

The SPX's rebound propelled the index up 45+ points, in line with the average swing size for the last six months:


This fulfilled our expectation from a month ago, that the index will reach the all time high. This raises again the question of whether the SPX will continue advancing within the confines of the QE III channel, or whether it will kick into higher gear, and aim for the top of the '09 channel.


Based on our market breadth analysis, the expectation is that overbought conditions will be reached within a day or two, which argues for a consolidation of the recent up move.

In the meantime, the state of the daily, weekly and monthly trend for the DJIA, SPX and QQQ is up.



George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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