Gold: Fading Near the Resistance at 1420
Gold may have completed a short-term rebound following the rejection at 1422 seen last Friday. In fact the daily structure, present since 1488 (03/05/2013 high), has the appearance of a bearish flag/pennant. With this in mind, we anticipate further weakness to retest the recent 1338 low. An hourly support is at 1385.
In the medium-term, gold has confirmed a weakening bias by breaking to the downside out of its long-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1523 (29/12/2011 low) and the resistance at 1803 (08/11/2011 high). The implied medium-term downside risk is 1287. A key support is at 1308 (28/01/2011 low).