Technical Market Report for August 17, 2013

By: Mike Burk | Sat, Aug 17, 2013
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The good news is:
• The market averages are likely to be at or near their low point for this month.


The negatives

New highs have disappeared.

There were 406 new lows on the NYSE last Thursday, that is huge.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH is close to its low of last June and falling.

NY New Highs are falling

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.

OTC NH continued its tumble last week.

OTC NH continued its tumble last week

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs / (new highs + new lows), (NY HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the neutral 50% level.

NY HL Ratio is near its low of late June and falling sharply.

NY HL Ratio is near its low of late June and falling sharply


The positives

New lows remained insignificant on the NASDAQ.

The chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio closed at 64% on Friday, still above the neutral level.

OTC HL Ratio closed at 64% on Friday, still above the neutral level


Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of August during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.

The tables below show the daily return on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of August during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2012 while SPX data runs from 1953 - 2012. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Average returns for the coming week have been mixed, slightly positive for the OTC and slightly negative for the SPX.

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of August.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.38% 0.00% 0.02% 0.36% 0.20% 0.95%
1969-1 0.94% 1.49% 0.25% 0.24% 0.50% 3.42%
 
1973-1 -1.00% -0.54% -0.76% 1.17% -0.13% -1.25%
1977-1 0.20% -0.11% -0.19% -0.61% -0.25% -0.95%
1981-1 -2.00% -1.48% 0.02% -0.50% 0.37% -3.60%
1985-1 -0.28% 0.25% 0.44% -0.27% -0.06% 0.08%
1989-1 -0.79% 0.01% 0.77% 0.87% 0.19% 1.04%
Avg -0.77% -0.38% 0.05% 0.13% 0.02% -0.94%
 
1993-1 -0.01% 0.59% -0.20% -0.31% 0.37% 0.43%
1997-1 0.48% 1.99% 1.75% -1.34% -0.50% 2.37%
2001-1 0.77% -2.00% 1.57% -0.92% 2.00% 1.42%
2005-1 0.27% -0.19% -0.39% 0.26% -0.64% -0.69%
2009-1 -0.14% 0.31% 0.01% 0.16% 0.05% 0.39%
Avg 0.27% 0.14% 0.55% -0.43% 0.26% 0.78%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2009
Avg -0.10% 0.03% 0.27% -0.07% 0.18% 0.30%
Win% 50% 55% 67% 50% 58% 67%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2012
Avg -0.11% -0.01% 0.32% -0.09% 0.19% 0.29%
Win% 40% 54% 69% 50% 62% 58%
 
SPX Presidential Year 1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 -1.07% -0.66% -0.29% -0.29% -0.21% -2.53%
1957-1 -2.00% 0.85% 0.44% -0.73% -1.44% -2.88%
1961-1 0.21% 0.01% -0.67% -0.57% 0.12% -0.91%
1965-1 -0.15% 0.17% 0.12% 0.38% 0.07% 0.59%
1969-1 0.61% 0.53% 0.00% 0.29% 0.60% 2.03%
Avg -0.48% 0.18% -0.10% -0.18% -0.17% -0.74%
 
1973-1 -0.68% -0.71% -0.36% 1.37% -0.28% -0.66%
1977-1 0.29% -0.17% -0.40% -1.11% -0.09% -1.49%
1981-1 -2.00% -0.29% -0.14% -1.16% 0.46% -3.13%
1985-1 0.15% 0.91% 0.57% -0.95% -0.10% 0.58%
1989-1 -1.55% 0.15% 1.03% 1.98% -0.28% 1.33%
Avg -0.76% -0.02% 0.14% 0.03% -0.06% -0.67%
 
1993-1 -0.20% 1.00% 0.08% 0.20% -0.11% 0.96%
1997-1 1.30% 1.48% 1.44% -1.52% -0.16% 2.53%
2001-1 0.81% -1.21% 0.70% -0.28% 1.97% 1.99%
2005-1 0.17% -0.34% -0.66% 0.23% -0.60% -1.20%
2009-1 -0.05% 0.24% 0.01% 0.28% -0.20% 0.27%
Avg 0.40% 0.23% 0.31% -0.22% 0.18% 0.91%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2009
Avg -0.28% 0.13% 0.13% -0.13% -0.02% -0.17%
Win% 47% 60% 57% 47% 33% 53%
 
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2012
Avg -0.14% 0.02% 0.20% -0.16% 0.04% -0.05%
Win% 42% 55% 60% 45% 50% 58%


Money Supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth remained above its elevated trend of the last few years.

m@ Money Supply Chart


Conclusion

The market has been following the average seasonal pattern for the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle quite closely. That pattern suggests we should be at or near the low for this month. The market is oversold with many of the breadth indicators near their lows of the year.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday August 23 than they were on Friday August 16.

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Good Luck,

YTD W 19/L 8/T 6

 


 

Author: Mike Burk

Mike Burk

Mike Burk independently publishes a weekly newsletter on the stock market from a technical perspective.

Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com). Historical data is from Barron's and ISI price books. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

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