The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Sep 22, 2013
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Last week the expectations were that the Qs will reach our upside target of 79.5, and that the SPX will fail to produce a clean break above the July/August congestion zone. Both were fulfilled and in the process the market breadth indicator has reached its highest level since October 2011:

SPX Chart
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This, along with the seasonal pattern suggests that another sideways/down phase is likely to follow. It should be noted that the trend of the main indices is up in all three time frames (daily, weekly and monthly), and a period of consolidation is necessary to digest the gains since the beginning of September.

The monthly chart shows that the next cycle peak is due in January 2014 which, as it happens, coincides with Ben's stepping down from the Fed:

SPX Monthly Chart
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Looking at the metals, the technical outlook didn't improve last week. Both gold and silver made lower lows and, until they break above their respective down sloping channels, they will remain under pressure:

SPDR Gold Trust Weekly Chart
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iShares Silver Trust Weekly Chart
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George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

OT Pivots - combines the power of pivot lines with cycles to provide you with concise technical analysis and powerful trading signals.

OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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