GBPUSD Is Looking Bearish Against 1.6260-Elliott Wave Forecast

By: Gregor Horvat | Wed, Oct 16, 2013
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GBPUSD is very slow and choppy above 1.5900 level so we think that move from the latest low is corrective, therefore we think that recovery is temporary. In fact we labeled a decline from 1.6260 with five waves down which is evidence of a bearish price action, marked as wave (a) or (i). In both cases we expect a third leg lower once corrective wave (b) or (ii) will complete a retracement. Ideally this will occur somewhere between 38.2-61.8% retracement area compared to previous decline. In that region we also have a parallel trend line connected from 1.6161 swing that could also react as a resistance level. With that said traders should be aware of a bearish waves in the next few days. This view remains valid as long as price trades beneath 1.6260 high.

GBPUSD 4h

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart


Educational Part: 3 Wave Decline Elliott Wave Pattern

From an Elliott Wave perspective it's good to know that five wave move represents a direction of a larger trend or change in trend. In our case it means that GBPUSD is in bearish trend and reason why we are looking for lower GBPUSD, possibly down to 1.5800 in days ahead.

Below is the graphics that shows how the structure of the basic patterns looks like and where we think GBPUSD is at the moment. It's in five waves as you can see followed by a three wave retracement before a new leg down occurs.

3 Wave Decline

Idealized Elliott Wave 3-Wave Decline

 


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat
www.ew-forecast.com

Gregor Horvat

Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of www.ew-forecast.com, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on: SafeHaven.com, FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At www.ew-forecast.com he helps clients and educate them about the Elliott wave prinicple and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time.  His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.

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