GBPUSD Is Looking Bearish Against 1.6260-Elliott Wave Forecast

By: Gregor Horvat | Wed, Oct 16, 2013
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GBPUSD is very slow and choppy above 1.5900 level so we think that move from the latest low is corrective, therefore we think that recovery is temporary. In fact we labeled a decline from 1.6260 with five waves down which is evidence of a bearish price action, marked as wave (a) or (i). In both cases we expect a third leg lower once corrective wave (b) or (ii) will complete a retracement. Ideally this will occur somewhere between 38.2-61.8% retracement area compared to previous decline. In that region we also have a parallel trend line connected from 1.6161 swing that could also react as a resistance level. With that said traders should be aware of a bearish waves in the next few days. This view remains valid as long as price trades beneath 1.6260 high.


GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart

Educational Part: 3 Wave Decline Elliott Wave Pattern

From an Elliott Wave perspective it's good to know that five wave move represents a direction of a larger trend or change in trend. In our case it means that GBPUSD is in bearish trend and reason why we are looking for lower GBPUSD, possibly down to 1.5800 in days ahead.

Below is the graphics that shows how the structure of the basic patterns looks like and where we think GBPUSD is at the moment. It's in five waves as you can see followed by a three wave retracement before a new leg down occurs.

3 Wave Decline

Idealized Elliott Wave 3-Wave Decline


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat, based in Slovenia, has been in the forex markets since 2003. He is a technical analyst and individual trader who has worked for Capital Forex Group and He also is founder of forex services on provides technical analysis of the financial markets, highlighting behavioral patterns based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP). Website:

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