• 288 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 288 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 290 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 690 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 700 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 701 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 703 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 707 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 707 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 708 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 710 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 714 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 715 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 717 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

Originally published 5th December, 2013.


 

Last week's analysis expected an end to a fourth wave correction within one or two days, to be followed by more downwards movement for a fifth wave.

There is now a clear five down on the daily chart. Upwards movement has breached a channel containing this impulse, and a second wave correction has begun.

US Oil Daily Chart
Larger Image

The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. There is now a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart, and I have some confidence in a trend change at cycle degree.

Within the downwards movement the strongest downwards momentum is within the third wave. Minute wave iii is over and was just 0.40 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.29 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.08 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).

I have used Elliott's first channeling technique to draw a parallel channel about this downwards impulse. Draw the first trend line from the lows labeled minute waves i to iii, then place a parallel copy upon the high labeled minute wave ii. This channel is now clearly breached by three daily candlesticks above, and they do not touch the upper trend line. This is an indication that minor wave 1 is now over and minor wave 2 is underway.

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days. I would expect minor wave 2 to be around about a similar duration. It must subdivide into a clear three wave structure. It is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 104.42.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

US Oil Hourly Chart
Larger Image

So far the upwards structure looks like a completed five wave impulse, followed by a correction.

This may be minute wave a and now b unfolding. Or if we move the labeling down one degree, it may be only minuette wave (a) within a three wave structure for minute wave a.

There are over 13 possible corrective structures for minor wave 2. As more of the structure becomes clear over the next few weeks the labeling within it will change.

The most likely structure for minor wave 2 is a zigzag, and that is how I will label it to start. Within the zigzag minute wave b may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 91.76 in the short term.

If minor wave 2 continues as a flat, running triangle or combination it may make a new low below 91.76. But for now, after a five up labeled wave a, the next movement for wave b should not move below 91.76.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment