USD/JPY: Initial Break Over 103.74 Fails to Hold
USD/JPY managed to briefly break over the key resistance level at 103.74 (22/05/2013 high), but has thus far failed to hold over this level. The short-term technical structure remains positive though, as long as the support at 102.16 (11/12/2013 low, see also short-term rising trendline) holds. Another support is at 101.63.
The extreme short positioning of noncommercial traders makes us sceptical of significant near-term upside.
In the longer term, the technical configuration since the 22 May peak at 103.74 looks like a pause within an underlying uptrend. Therefore, we expect an eventual continuation of the longer term bullish trend. Another resistance can be found at 105.50 (61.8% retracement of the decline that started in June 2007).