US OIL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

By: Lara Iriarte | Wed, Dec 18, 2013
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Originally posted 17th December, 2013.

Last analysis expected more downwards movement towards a short term target at 96.49. Downwards movement reached 96.21. Price turned upwards from there.

The wave count is the same.

Oil Daily Chart
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The bigger picture sees US Oil in a new downwards trend to last from one to several years. There is now a clear five wave structure downwards on the daily chart, and I have some confidence in a trend change at cycle degree.

Within the downwards movement the strongest downwards momentum is within the third wave. Minute wave iii is over and was just 0.40 longer than 2.618 the length of minute wave i, and minute wave v is 0.29 short of 0.618 the length of minute wave i.

Ratios within minute wave iii are: there is no Fibonacci ratio between minuette waves (iii) and (i), and minuette wave (v) is 0.08 short of 0.382 the length of minuette wave (i).

Minor wave 1 lasted 65 days. I would expect minor wave 2 to be around about a similar duration. It must subdivide into a clear three wave structure. It is most likely to end about the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio of minor wave 1 at 104.42. At 103.21 minute wave c would reach equality with minute wave a.

I have drawn a parallel channel about minor wave 2. I would expect minute wave c to find resistance at the upper edge of this channel.

Minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 112.24.

Oil Hourly Chart
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So far minute wave c may be unfolding as an ending diagonal. The first upwards wave subdivides best as a zigzag, with a b wave triangle in the middle.

Within the diagonal minuette wave (ii) is most likely to end between 0.66 and 0.81 the length of minuette wave (i), between 96.78 and 96.53.

Minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). This wave count is invalidated with movement below 96.21.



Lara Iriarte

Author: Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Lara Iriarte

Elliott wave is one of the more difficult and complicated technical analysis tools. When done right it can be uncannily accurate.

I have been using the Elliott wave principle to analyse up to five markets a day since 2008. I began Elliott Wave Forex (originally in 2009 to provide daily analysis of EURUSD and GBPUSD, then I began Elliott Wave Stock Market in 2010. Elliott Wave Gold began in August, 2013. Currently I provide daily analysis of Gold on this site, and daily analysis of the S&P 500 on Elliott Wave Stock Market for its members.

I have a science background (BSc) which has trained me to think logically and be evidence focussed. Over the years I have seen no market movement which does not fit into the clear and restrictive rules for Elliott wave structures.

I have members who are fund managers, institutional investors and professional traders.

If you want to learn how to apply the Elliott wave principle to any market my analysis service is designed to teach you, daily, how to do this.

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