The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sun, Mar 23, 2014
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Despite all the geopolitical turmoil in the last month, and the Fed's continued reduction in asset purchases, the trend for the major averages remains up in the weekly and monthly time frame.

Although the averages have stalled below the highs made at the beginning of March, they all remain above key first tier support levels (1850 for the SPX, 88.5 for the Qs, and 16,000 for the DJIA):

Dow Jones 30 Weekly Chart
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As long as these levels hold and don't become resistance, the technical outlook will remain positive.

Bullish sentiment has weakened but still remains above 75%. That level was breached only once during the last two years, and it happened to coincide with the February '14 correction:

Bullish Sentiment versus SPX Chart

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Gold was able to overcome two technical hurdles by breaking above the first downsloping channel and the 50% retracement level of the '08 - '11 bull run. That level is in the process of being retested as support, and needs to hold in order for the technical picture to keep improving.

SPDR Gold Trust Shares Weekly Chart
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Silver didn't fare nearly as well as gold, and had a much more modest run. There is very little in terms of technical support that keeps it from retesting the July '13, December '13 and January '14 lows:

iShares Silver Trust Weekly Chart
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George Krum

Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps:

OddsTrader - combines the power of Hurst Channels with proper risk and position size management. For a web version see OT Signals below.

Gann 9 - the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world, and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - pairs trading, one of the most successful hedge fund trading strategies, is now available on your smart phone.

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OT Signals - a web app accessible from any browser, tablet or pc. It gives buy/sell/hold ratings for any instrument from around the world, and defines the trend and support/resistance levels.

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