Elliott Wave Analysis: GOLD, OIL and SP500

By: Gregor Horvat | Fri, May 30, 2014
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Finally, gold broke to the downside in this week, out of triangle within a triangle if we consider the substructure of our red wave e). Keep in mind that wave e) can itself be a triangle as well! Notice that prices accelerated lower in impulsive manner, once already through 1255 first projected level but there is room for a drop to 1230. Only a five wave rally from the low will suggests that something is changing but for now that's clearly not the case.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

GOLD 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

Crude oil has turned bearish this week, away from 104.00-104.50 resistance where we were looking for a wave (d) high. Notice that market turned nicely down and took out the support channel line that confirms the bearish view, for a three wave drop into wave (e) back to 100-101 area. Once those levels will be seen, we will turn bullish as big triangle since March could then be near completion.

OIL 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

OIL 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart

S&P500 is at the all-time highs, and now finally approaching our 1920 short-term target. Notice that price is actually already at resistance area, as market reaches triangle measurement zone. At the same time we can see a slight negative divergence on the RSI that suggests limited upside pressure, thus a turning point may follow soon. For now, however trend remains in bullish mode, but decline close to 1884 would definitely be a bearish sign as bullish alternate count would then also be invalidated. So in the best possible scenario market will turn bearish at the start of June for strong decline down in wave C).

On the other-hand we will go with the current bullish trend and new wave count if market will make extensions above 1950.

S&P500 4h Elliott Wave Analysis

S&P500 4-Hour Elliott Wave Analysis Chart


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Gregor Horvat

Author: Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Grega is based in Slovenia and has been involved in markets since 2003. He is the owner of www.ew-forecast.com, but before that he was working for Capital Forex Group and TheLFB.com. His feature articles have been published on: SafeHaven.com, FXstreet.com, Thestreet.com, Action forex, Forex TV, Istockanalyst, ForexFactory, Fxtraders.eu, Insidefutures.com, etc. He recently won the award on FXStreet.com for Best Forex Analysis in 2016. At www.ew-forecast.com he helps clients and educate them about the Elliott wave prinicple and how to label and track unfolding patterns in real time.  His approach to the markets is mainly technical. He uses a lot of different methods when analyzing the markets such as candlestick patterns, MA, technical indicators etc. His specialty however is Elliott Wave Theory which could be very helpful especially if you know how to use it in combination with other tools/indicators.

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