Call Off the Deflation Warning

By: Michael Ashton | Thu, Jan 8, 2015
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Today's column is a brief one, as I need to post a correction. Not a correction to my stuff, mind you, but to others.

Pictures like the below have been circulating now for a couple of weeks. This is a chart of the 2-year inflation "breakeven" on Bloomberg, illustrating how a "deflation warning" is sounding as they go negative.

2-year inflation "breakeven"
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Unfortunately, it ain't so. I wrote to the authors of the original Bloomberg piece referenced above, and called Bloomberg (more on that later), and figured that when I pointed out that 2-year inflation expectations are nowhere near zero, the story would at least die quietly even if pride prevented a retraction. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened and other "analysts" and news outlets have picked up the story. So, I need to print a correction for them. Unconventional, I know, but I stand for Truth.

The simple fact is that 2-year inflation expectations have fallen deeply, but remain well above zero. The chart below, also from Bloomberg, shows 2-year inflation swaps over the same period. You will notice that it has fallen mightily but remains at about 0.70%.

2-year inflation swaps
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It turns out that the difference between the Jan-17 TIPS (which have 2 years to maturity) and the Jan-17 nominal Treasuries that are their comparator bond - taking the difference between real and nominal rates gives you the "breakeven" inflation rate that makes them equivalent investments; thus the name - is also about 0.70%.

So why does Bloomberg say the 2-year breakeven is negative? Well, Bloomberg's "policy" is to track the April-2016 TIPS as the "2-year" TIPS until the new April-2020 TIPS are auctioned in April At that time, they will roll to using the April-2017 TIPS, which will have two years to maturity, and will use that bond for a year. While I applaud Bloomberg for having a policy, that's no excuse for a stupid policy. There is no place in this universe where the April-16s are a 2-year note. Not even close. And not the "best we can do."

In truth, especially for short-dated inflation expectations there is no reason not to use inflation swaps. The 2-year inflation swap is evergreen each day with a new 2-year maturity, and there are no idiosyncrasies (such as the fact that the April issues often trade cheap because of the bad seasonality associated with them, so they will usually understate true inflation expectations if you use them) to worry about.

So the story is false. The market is not discounting two years of deflation. Indeed, the reality is quite a bit different. The chart below (source: Enduring Investments - we know stuff like this) shows the 1-year inflation rate, starting 1 year from now (the 1y1y or 1x2 if you like), derived from CPI swaps. While it has come down substantially since the summer, it is not particularly out of line. In fact, it's pretty much right where core inflation is, which makes sense: the energy spike lower is not going to continue year after year, which means that once it stops then headline inflation will return to the neighborhood of core...unless there's a rebound in gasoline, of course. But the point is that the best guess of inflation one year from now has little to do with gasoline.

Forward Inflation Chart: 1-year inflation rate, starting 1 year from now (the 1y1y derived from CPI swaps

Actually, the even-deeper point is that it is appalling how little general knowledge there is about inflation, and how journalists and even many analysts have scant idea how to get to the real story. (Hint: calling an inflation expert is a good start.)

 


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Michael Ashton

Author: Michael Ashton

Michael Ashton, CFA
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Michael Ashton

Michael Ashton is Managing Principal at Enduring Investments LLC, a specialty consulting and investment management boutique that offers focused inflation-market expertise. He may be contacted through that site. He is on Twitter at @inflation_guy

Prior to founding Enduring Investments, Mr. Ashton worked as a trader, strategist, and salesman during a 20-year Wall Street career that included tours of duty at Deutsche Bank, Bankers Trust, Barclays Capital, and J.P. Morgan.

Since 2003 he has played an integral role in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives markets and is widely viewed as a premier subject matter expert on inflation products and inflation trading. While at Barclays, he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps. He was primarily responsible for the creation of the CPI Futures contract that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange listed in February 2004 and was the lead market maker for that contract. Mr. Ashton has written extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, including papers and book chapters on "Inflation and Commodities," "The Real-Feel Inflation Rate," "Hedging Post-Retirement Medical Liabilities," and "Liability-Driven Investment For Individuals." He frequently speaks in front of professional and retail audiences, both large and small. He runs the Inflation-Indexed Investing Association.

For many years, Mr. Ashton has written frequent market commentary, sometimes for client distribution and more recently for wider public dissemination. Mr. Ashton received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Trinity University in 1990 and was awarded his CFA charter in 2001.

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