Monthly time frame:
- The pattern from the October 1992 low doesn't gives many clues regarding the overall trend
- Unlike the major indices IBEX did not establish a bottom at the March 2009 instead it bottomed at the July 2012 low
- It is clearly lagging since it has not even reclaimed the 0.618 retracement of the decline from the 2007 high; hence probably the advance from the 2012 low is a countertrend rally
- Elliott Wave if the advance from the July 2012 is a countertrend move we could have two potential counts:
1.Double Zig Zag: If this scenario is correct IBEX is unfolding the second wave (B). The assumed wave (B) should not breach the January 2010 high. Once it is in place the following wave (Y) down should retest and probably breach the July 2012 low
2. Triangle wave (X): If the January 2010 high is not breached IBEX could be forming a Triangle. When it is set and done the following thrust down will most likely breach the 2012 low
Weekly time frame:
- The advance from the July 2012 low does not look impulsive (Countertrend move)
- If the 27 w ma = 10953 holds probably it is not over yet. In addition from the April high the decline has unfolded a corrective pattern.
- Elliott Wave wise we could have two scenarios:
- Completed Zig Zag ?
- Ending Diagonal: If this count is correct price has to hold this week low and reclaim and remain above the 10 w ma = 11368
Daily time frame:
- On Tuesday with a Hammer, price established a reversal pattern after penetrating the 200 dma (Line in the sand for a bullish scenario)
- The decline from the April high can be counted as a Double Zig Zag
- The corrective decline theoretically does not preclude a new 52 weeks high but obviously bulls have to prove that they can regain the upper hand by reclaiming the 50 dma = 11409
