Gold: October High

By: Ed Carlson | Tue, Oct 6, 2015
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Gold lost $8.90/oz. last week to close at $1,137.10 but on Friday printed an engulfing bullish candlestick. Gold gained $22.90 on Friday marking last week's expected cycle low and closed on the 89-dma. The 89-dma is an important marker of regime change but beware past Pinocchio breakouts. Any breakout through the 89-dma will find next resistance close-by from the 8/21/15 high near 1,160.

Gold has been below the 61.8% retracement of the 2008 rally (wave 5) since July. Long-term, this opens the door for a possible return to that low near 700. A triangle forecasts a minimum decline in gold to 1,000.

Cycles indicate that an important high is due in October. A 4yr cycle low is not due until the first half of 2016 keeping the long-term outlook bearish.

Seasonality is bullish in the first half of October but manages to lose all its gains by month-end.

Gold Chart: 100 oz Composite Continuous
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Ed Carlson

Author: Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson
Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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