• 316 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 317 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 318 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 718 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 723 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 725 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 728 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 728 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 729 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 731 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 731 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 735 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 735 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 736 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 738 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 739 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 742 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 743 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 743 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 745 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Day Follows Night: Gold Follows US Bonds

For the same reason as the Euro was sharply lower today, so was gold, namely, a hawkish Yellen testimony in which see used the words, "living possibility" when referring to a potential December rate hike.

With interest rates moving higher on the Ten Year Treasury once more today, ( at 2.23% as I type this), gold simply cannot compete with better returns on interest bearing assets such as notes and bonds as it casts off no yield whatsoever and depends completely on capital gains to produce any sort of increase for its owners.

Here is a chart of the yield on the Ten Year Treasury... it is near a 7 week high...

10-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart
Larger Image

The relationship between gold and the price of the Ten Year Treasury futures contract has resumed with both moving in near perfect sync. Remember as the price of the futures contract moves lower, the actual rate or yield moves higher.

10-Year Treasury Note Futures and Gold Futures Chart
Larger Image

As the yields move higher, gold is moving lower. Nothing sinister - no "malevolent force" as Dennis Gartman foolishly suggested the other day in which he played the gold cult card for his own misreading of the charts on some evil, sinister gold cartel attack, etc. Look, any time any trader is on the wrong side of a move, he is always tempted to blame it on something other than his own analysis. But that is something we expect novice traders to do, not seasoned pros like Mr. Gartman.

I think we can also say with relative confidence at this point is that if interest rates were to fall lower on Friday on the heels of what might be a negative jobs report, gold will simply follow the Ten Year Treasury futures contract as it will most likely rally on a weak number. If the number is very strong, and plays into ideas that the Fed will move in December, then the futures contract for the Ten Year will probably fall lower ( interest rates rising) and gold will follow it down.

Gold Daily Chart
Larger Image

On the actual gold chart itself, support near round number and psychologically significant $1100 looks like it is going to be tested. There might be some buying in Asia this evening during the hours at which India comes on but Western sentiment towards gold has soured tremendously since last week's hawkish FOMC statement and was further undercut by her hawkish comments today.

If $1100 were to give way, $1080 comes into play.

Both indicators remain in negative technical postures giving the bears the clear advantage. The loss of the level 40 for the RSI points out how weak the market has become.

Severe technical damage has been done to this price chart and it is going to take a Herculean effort on the part of the bulls to turn it around. If they do not get some help from Friday's upcoming payrolls number, they are in big, big trouble as long liquidation is now picking up speed with new shorts coming in as well on the speculative side.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment