Another Brutal Monday

By: John Rubino | Sun, Nov 15, 2015
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One of the challenges of managing money is the (increasingly-frequent) need to translate non-financial tragedies into action to protect clients and, yes, profit from the broader world's horror.

So while most people react to events in Paris with stunned sympathy and/or impotent rage, the financial community is deciding what to buy and sell. And right now it looks like "sell" is winning.

Paris attacks: global stock markets braced for sell-off

(Telegraph) - Global stock markets are headed for a sell-off on Monday after the deadliest attacks to hit France since the Second World War left more than 100 people dead and dozens injured.

Stock market futures pointed to falls in Asia, Europe and the US, as bourses across the Middle East recoiled on Sunday amid warnings that the terrorist attacks in Paris could spark a renewed bout of volatility.

The Dubai stock market fell 3.7pc in afternoon trading on Sunday to a fresh 2015 low, while stocks in Saudi Arabia lost 2.6pc and Egypt's benchmark index dropped to a two-year low. Markets in Kuwait and Bahrain also fell.

Sustained oil price weakness has already prompted concerns about the region's outlook.

Analysts said the attack was likely to hit tourism in Paris, which could have consequences for the rest of France and Europe.

"The truly awful events in Paris could certainly have a significant negative impact on consumer confidence in the near term at least," said Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight.

"There could also be an adverse impact on tourism in some European countries where people think attacks are most likely to occur - not just in France...Volatility should rise for Europe and for the Middle East."

Several things to consider going into next week:

First, the global equity markets were already correcting before the Paris attacks. Last week was the worst for US stocks since August, and the plunging price of oil combined with truly horrible numbers from major retail chains pointed towards more volatility in any event.

Second, in recent years real-world events have not driven the financial markets. Instead, the major central banks' reactions to events have become the key indicator for most traders. So Europe's turmoil might, perversely, be applauded by the markets if it ends the Fed's rate hike delusion and spurs the ECB to even more amazing feats of debt monetization. Crazy, but entirely possible in today's world.

And finally, this is the beginning rather than the end of a long process. The political/financial implications of Europe's immigration debacle and America's Middle East mess will take years to unfold. Elections are held at different times in different places, so the anti-immigration, anti-austerity, anti-euro tide won't fully come in until 2017 or beyond. In other words, lots more brutal Mondays to look forward to.

 


 

John Rubino

Author: John Rubino

John Rubino
DollarCollapse.com

John Rubino

John Rubino edits DollarCollapse.com and has authored or co-authored five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom, The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It, and How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust. After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a currency trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst. During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with TheStreet.com and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications. He now writes for CFA Magazine.

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