Stock Market Down Monday, Gold Bottoming?

By: Brad Gudgeon | Sat, Nov 28, 2015
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Three weeks ago I warned my subscribers that a Mars aspect on November 12th (Mars conjunct Venus in Libra) was indicating an explosive situation ahead, including possible terrorist activity. That very same week on November 13th, the Paris attacks occurred. We have an even more explosive Mars situation beginning on December 6th (Mars square Pluto/Neptune) and again on December 10th (Mars opposite Neptune). Mars entered Libra on November 12th and doesn't leave that sign until early January. Mars is ruled by Aries, which is opposite the peace loving sign of Libra. Mars is conjunct Venus until Dec 4th. Venus is ruled by Libra, so the conflict continues.

This weekend on the 29th, we have the Sun translating Saturn square Neptune (11/26). The pattern and cycles (Gann 8 TD low) suggest a probable move down to 2067/68 SPX by day's end Monday. The seasonal/cycle pattern then suggests a rally into December 4th. We could possibly see a move up as high as 2023/24. Whatever the price, 12/4 (or nearby) should be a top. With the Sun squaring Jupiter on December 14th, we should see a bottom near that date right (Dec 15?) before the FED announcement. The last two years, a strong 8 trading Christmas rally ensued on or right before the December FED announcement. The set up is the same this year.

Gold got hit hard (to new bear market lows) on November 27th in what is "normally" a thinly traded session (bear raid?). The funny thing is, the miners (GDX) did not make a new bear market low, creating a case of inter-market bullish divergence (at least for the short term). Gold also made a bullish inverse white hammer on the futures. GDX has a 7 trading low due at the end of the day Monday and December 1 "seasonally" is usually a strong up day. This fits the cycle/wave patterns I'm seeing. Downside for GDX should support in the $13.10/.14 range and upside should run toward $14.24/.28.

We are entering week 19 of the 18-22 week low window. My original thinking last week was that gold would likely break $1000 an ounce this week. This does not seem likely from what I'm now seeing (although it may be possible by mid December).

Below are charts of the SPX, GDX and UVXY (a leveraged volatility ETF):

S&P500 Daily Chart
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GDX 2-Hour Chart
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UVXY Hourly Chart
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The price projections are based on past market behavior observance, but not to be taken as trading advice or set in stone (I reserve the right to change my mind as markets fluctuate/I trade the market not the forecast). Seasonal cycles are easier to interpret (within nesting windows) than e-wave amplitudes (price forecasts). Market forecasting is difficult and is done as a general guideline, but subject to change as market forces change. Please keep this in mind.

 


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Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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Brad Gudgeon

Author: Brad Gudgeon

Brad Gudgeon
BluStar Market Timer
Blog
eaglesoveramerica.com

BluStar Market Timer Investment Philosophy: The stock market is currently in a technical Elliott Wave Bear Market Rally. It has been exhibiting A-B-C type waves instead of the normal 5 Waves since the market topped in 2000. According to "The Original Works of R.N. Elliott", we are due for a move down to about the S&P 500 442/443 area in the next few years. In my opinion, this is no longer a buy and hold market, but a traders' market. We mainly swing trade the market with funds and ETF's, but otherwise trade according to the market's disposition and to the traders' discretion. For the year 2014, BluStar Market Timer is rated #1 according to Timer Trac. http://www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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