Forex Trading Alert: Higher Crude Oil's Prices and USD/CAD

By: Nadia Simmons & Przemyslaw Radomski | Fri, Aug 19, 2016
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Forex Trading Alert originally published on Aug 18, 2016, 7:50 AM


 

Earlier today, the USD Index extended losses against its Canadian counterpart after the disappointing minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting (they vanished expectations for a September rate hike) continued to weigh on investors' sentiment. Additionally, rising prices of crude oil supported Canadian currency, which pushed USD/CAD under 1.2800. What's next for the exchange rate?

In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified – summary:

EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: short (stop-loss at 1.3579; initial downside target at 1.2519)
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none

In other words we closing yet another profitable trade by taking profits off the table in case of USD/CHF and USD/CAD.


EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Chart
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Looking at the weekly char, we see that EUR/USD extended gains and climbed above the medium-term brown resistance line, invalidating earlier breakdown. Taking this positive signal (which would be even bullish if the exchange rate closes the week above this line) and buy signals generated by the indcators into account, we think that further improvement is likely.

How high could the pair go in the coming day(s)? Let's examine the very short-term chart and find out.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
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From this perspective, we see that although EUR/USD slipped under the brown resistance line yesterday, currency bulls managed to stop decline and trigger an upswing. As a result, the exchange rate invalidated earlier breakdown, which suggests a test of the upper border of the blue rising trend channel in the coming days. At this point, it is also worth noting that this area is also reinforced by the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement and Jun highs, which increases the probability of reversal in near future – especially when we factor in the current position of the daily indicators (the CCI and Stochastic Oscillator are overbought and quite close to generating sell signals).

Very short-term outlook: bullish
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD Weekly Chart
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Last Friday, we wrote the following:

(...) USD/CAD reversed and declined, which resulted in a comeback to the blue consolidation (an invalidation of earlier breakout above the upper line of the formation is a negative signal – especially if the exchange rate closes the week below it).

On the above chart, we see that the situation developed in line with the above scenario and the pair closes the previous week inside the consolidation. This negative event triggered further deterioration this week, which in combination with sell signals generated by the indicators suggests a test of the lower line of the formation.

Are there any technical factors that may stop currency bears in the coming days? Lets focus on the daily chart and find out.

USD/CAD Daily Chart
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Quoting our Tuesday's alert:

(...) The pair extended losses and slipped under the mid-Jul lows, which suggests further deterioration and a test of the upper border of the red medium-term support line (around 1.2800) in the coming day(s).

From today's point of view, we see that currency bears pushed the pair lower as we had expected. With this downswing, USD/CAD reached our downside target on Tuesday. As you see, although the upper border of the red medium-term support line triggered a rebound yesterday, the exchange rate slipped lower earlier today, hitting our target once again. Taking this fact into account and combining it with the proximity to the red line (which serves as the nearest support) and the Fibonacci retracements (slightly below current levels is a support area created by the 76.4% and 78.6% retracements), we think that reversal and higher values of USD/CAD are just around the corner (this scenario is also reinforced by the current position of the daily indicators, which are very close to generating buy signals). Therefore, in our opinion, closing short positions (we opened them when USD/CAD was trading around 1.2972) and taking profits off the table is justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


USD/CHF

USD/CHF Weekly Chart
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USD/CHF Daily Chart
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On Tuesday, we wrote the following:

(...) the pair moved significantly lower (making our short positions more profitable) and broke below the Jul and early Aug lows, which is a negative signal that suggests a test of the medium-term blue support line in the coming days.

Looking at the charts, we see that the situation evolved in tune with our forecast and USD/CHF slipped under our downside target. As you see on the daily chart, slightly below current levels is a green support zone (created by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the entire May-Nov 2015 upward move and the 76.4% and 78.6% retracement levels based on the May 2016 increases), which in combination with the current position of the daily indicators suggests reversal and rebound in the coming day(s). Therefore, closing another profitable positions (as a reminder, we opened short positions when USD/CHF was trading around 0.9756) is justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Very short-term outlook: mixed with bullish bias
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: mixed

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.

Thank you.

 


 

Nadia Simmons

Author: Nadia Simmons

Nadia Simmons
Sunshine Profits.com
Forex & Oil Trading Strategist
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Nadia Simmons

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in currencies, commodities (mainly crude oil), and stocks. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market trends, major support and resistance zones, breakouts and failures. In her writing, she presents complex ideas with clarity that enables you to easily understand market changes, and profit on them. Nadia is the person behind Sunshine Profits' 3 premium trading services: Forex Trading Alerts, Oil Trading Alerts Alerts, and Oil Investment Updates.

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons's reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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Przemyslaw Radomski

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
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Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer: All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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