FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

By: Mike Shedlock | Fri, Nov 4, 2016
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In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.


November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Highlights

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast


November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Detail

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast Details
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Mish Comments

The GDPNow Forecast rose from 2.1% to 3.1% since the last estimate.  0.8 percentage points was due to auto sales.

The FRBNY Nowcast report does not even factor in auto sales.

Also note that exports added 0.019 percentage points to Nowcast, but 0.06 percentage points to GDPNow.

Once again it's not the data per se that drives either forecast, rather, it's the data vs. what the model predicted.

Regardless, there is a massive difference in how these models see things right now.

At least one of these models is way wrong.

 


 

Mike Shedlock

Author: Mike Shedlock

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Michael "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/ to learn more about wealth management for investors seeking strong performance with low volatility.

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