Stock Market Top? Sucker's Play

By: Brad Gudgeon | Mon, Dec 12, 2016
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The current rally from November 4 to December 12 (if indeed it was the top) was Minuette Wave Y of Minute Y. Minute Wave Y (of Minor Wave B) was a wxy inverted, irregular and strong bearish flat. Elliott called these B waves or irregular tops. The Trump rally is basically a "sucker's play". The internals of this rally are sick and very selective; the McClellan Summation Index is miles away from confirming it; the Dow Jones Industrials has far exceeded the SPX, which has far exceeded the NASDAQ creating a case of an inter-market bearish divergence. We also have a huge On-Balance-Volume divergence.

A move down into the mid 1900's SPX by February/March 2017 (as noted on the chart below) is my expectation. This would fit a Minor Wave B .618 retracement of Minor Wave A (January 19-July 14) fairly matching the November 2015 – January 2016 drop (due to the raising of rates).

I expect a down-up-down year for 2017, which should end Primary Wave 4. If Primary Wave 4 ends in late 2017 (like I'm thinking), then, the final top should occur somewhere around early 2019. The shallow decline of early November (which should have seen a deep 40 week low) followed by the strong Trump Rally, probably created a fortunate, unexpected delay in the finality of this upcoming, final fifth wave.

Millennial Wave (III?) "since c.a. 1000 C.E." Topping, early 2019?
Grand Super Cycle Wave (V) "since c.a. 1776"; Topping, early 2019?
Super Cycle Wave V "since 1942", Topping, early 2019?
Cycle Wave 5 "since March 2009", Topping, early 2019?
Primary Wave 4 "since late 2014", Rolling over into late 2017?
Intermediate Wave Y "since February 11, 2016", Topping August 2017?
Minor Wave B "since July 14, 2016", Rolling over into March 2017?
Minute Wave Y "since September 12, 2016", Topped December 12, 2016?
Minuette Wave Y "since November 4, 2016", Topped December 12, 2016?

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

It doesn't matter who is in power, the crash is coming! The above charts are perfect Elliott Wave counts. Are you ready?

 


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Brad Gudgeon

Author: Brad Gudgeon

Brad Gudgeon
BluStar Market Timer
Blog
eaglesoveramerica.com

BluStar Market Timer Investment Philosophy: The stock market is currently in a technical Elliott Wave Bear Market Rally. It has been exhibiting A-B-C type waves instead of the normal 5 Waves since the market topped in 2000. According to "The Original Works of R.N. Elliott", we are due for a move down to about the S&P 500 442/443 area in the next few years. In my opinion, this is no longer a buy and hold market, but a traders' market. We mainly swing trade the market with funds and ETF's, but otherwise trade according to the market's disposition and to the traders' discretion. For the year 2014, BluStar Market Timer is rated #1 according to Timer Trac. http://www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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