A Biased 2017 Forecast: Part II
In Part One of this article I discussed the failure of our brains to think rationally due to our biases and the relentless propaganda flogged by our Deep State ruling class. Viewing the future through the looking glass of the Fourth Turning keeps you focused on the three catalysts which will drive all events in 2017 and beyond. I've addressed my 2017 Debt forecast in Part One. Now I will make some guesses about what might happen in 2017 related to Civic Decay and Global Disorder.
Civic Decay Forecast
"Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance." - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
The presidential election and its aftermath tell you everything you need to know about the level of civic decay overtaking this country. The country is as divided as it was after the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860. There is virtually no common ground between liberals and conservatives. The pure hatred and contempt between the winners and losers in the recent election does not bode well for the country over the next four to eight years.
The social fabric of the country has been torn asunder. The Clinton supporters believe anyone not on their side is deplorable, racist, misogynist, and fans of Hitler. Trump supporters believe anyone not on their side is low IQ, Muslim loving, deceitful, math challenged, and fans of a criminal. The gulf between the two sides is unbridgeable.
Barack Obama, the well-dressed, polished, articulate, empty suit, who has occupied the White House for the last eight years serving as the front man for the Deep State, has done more to destroy race relations and sense of community than any president in history. His divisive rhetoric and actions over the last eight years created the atmosphere for the acrimonious election and the violent protests that followed.
His failure to quell the Soros funded Black Lives Matter terrorist organization has resulted in the slaughter of police across the country. Meanwhile, his hometown of Chicago has seen 800 homicides and over 4,400 shootings in 2016 - with over 90% blacks killing blacks. His legacy is one of complete and utter failure, but his hubris knows no bounds, and he actually believes his eight year reign of error was a resounding success. Facts be damned.
"A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise." - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Obama fears his legacy will go up in flames. When you govern through executive orders, bypassing Congress, and flaunting the Constitution, your actions can be overturned with the stroke of a pen. When your crowning achievement - Obamacare - is derided by virtually everyone in the country as an epic failure and will be repealed and replaced in short order, you realize your entire presidency was a sham and a national disgrace.
Obama is flailing about in his final weeks desperately trying to keep the attention focused upon him. He is gambling with the lives of his countrymen by doing everything in his power to provoke World War III with Russia and to inflame the Middle East with his UN engineered snub of Israel. Obama doesn't like to lose and he is acting like a churlish spoiled brat as his time runs out. He has become a laughingstock around the world. He will fan the flames of discontent in this country until he is ushered out of the White House.
Here are a few suppositions about what will happen next:
Obama trying to sow discord between the U.S. and Russia will fail, as Trump and Putin will meet and find common ground in the Middle East, the Ukraine, and Turkey. Republican neo-cons like McCain and Graham will be outraged. Liberal warmongers who once protested Bush's wars will also be outraged. The mainstream media will continue to try and fan the flames of war.
Before leaving office Obama will poke a final stick in the eye of Trump and his supporters by pardoning Hillary Clinton for all possible wrongdoing. This will infuriate the right. Trump will do everything in his power to investigate the Clinton foundation and any issues which could incriminate Bill, Holder, Lynch or Obama. The peaceful transition of power has not been observed by the left, so all bets are off once Trump takes office.
Well-funded (by Soros) domestic agitators, including BLM and various femi-nazi groups, will attempt to disrupt the inauguration ceremonies. There will be violence, conflicts with Trump supporters, and police confrontations. This will further widen the divide in this country. The left have proven to be those who promote violence and will continue to do so. If they venture outside of their urban safe zones, they will be met with a white heavily armed populace.
The left wing mainstream media will not be deterred in their efforts to bring down the Trump presidency. They will fire away on a daily basis as their ratings drop lower and lower. Their railing against "fake news" has backfired, driving more people to alternative media sites where they will not be inundated with Deep State approved propaganda. The press will do their utmost to agitate the masses, creating and promoting conflict. Trump will continue to bypass and scorn the media outlets by taking his message directly to the people.
Building the wall, shutting off the immigration pipeline of Muslim refugees, defunding sanctuary cities, and fully supporting local police across the country will trigger snowflakes, BLM terrorists, illegal immigrants, and various Soros funded radical groups to stage violent protests in the liberal urban enclaves. They are waiting for their next high profile police shooting to pounce. The civil chaos and violent protests will increase as the year progresses.
Whoever Trump nominates as his Supreme Court justice will face enormous scrutiny. The left wing media will stop at nothing to destroy the nominee. The hearings in Congress will be nasty, rude, and vitriolic. The animosity between the opposing sides will reach epic proportions. Both sides know the Supreme Court is of vital importance to the future course of the country.
With Obama failing to fade into the sunset and his enormous ego and arrogance spurring him to agitate the left wingers, there will be no de-intensifying of the rhetoric between the right and the left. As we've seen, the left are the proponents of violence as their chief weapon. An attempt on the life of Trump is a distinct possibility in his first year in office. A successful or unsuccessful attempt would have far reaching consequences that could lead to civil chaos.
Global Disorder Forecast
"We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy. We focus on what we want to do and can do, neglecting the plans and skills of others. Both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. We are therefore prone to an illusion of control. We focus on what we know and neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs." - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
The level of global disorder hasn't been this high since the 1930s. There are dozens of potential flash points capable of producing a cascading crisis which could blow up the world. The highly touted establishment mantra of globalization has produced an interconnected web of trillions in global debt, with one quadrillion dollars of indecipherable derivatives layered on top, all dependent upon the sustenance of insolvent mega-banks and bankrupt nation states. The only thing keeping this global Ponzi scheme alive is the unfounded belief in the brilliance of central bankers and corrupt politicians.
The detonator for these interwoven financial weapons of mass destruction is rising global interest rates. The global financial system will be blown sky high by a sustained high volume sovereign bond selloff. The bond market is always the canary in the coal mine. Bonds will sell-off before stocks and real estate. Bond markets have begun to sell-off in a relatively orderly manner over the last three months, with long term Treasuries falling 13%. Bill Gross recently described the growing risk:
"Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day."
Will that day happen in 2017? No one knows for sure, but the probability is much higher than biased "experts" believe. The substantial concentration of cognitive biases clouding the judgement of the supposed wise men ruling the world has blinded them to the tragic consequences of what happens when the mother of all bubbles explodes like a supernova.
The complacency of those in charge and the trusting masses will eventually be dealt a death blow when the high frequency trading computers run amuck and wipe out trillions of faux paper wealth in a matter of minutes. The powers that be will declare no one could have seen it coming, when in actuality anyone with a basic understanding of math could have seen it coming from a mile away. Most have chosen to remain blind to reality, because dealing with it is too painful to consider.
"We can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness." - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
Let's get to a few prognostications regarding global events in 2017:
Obama, in a despicable act of trying to fence Trump in, has introduced further sanctions against Russia and Putin based upon no solid evidence other than the opinions of the same people who were sure there were WMD in Iraq. The MSM and the neo-con faction of his party are all on Obama's side. I expect Trump to override Obama's childish display of antagonism, while showing the neo-cons there is a new sheriff in town, by developing a working relationship with Putin and lowering the tensions between the two countries.
Trump and Putin will come to an agreement regarding keeping Assad in power in Syria while turning both nations' attention to obliterating ISIS and the so called "moderate" Al Qaeda terrorists in the Middle East. General Mattis and Trump's team of rational thinkers will develop a feasible plan to destroy ISIS once and for all. Safe zones will jointly be created in Syria and Iraq by the U.S. and Russia to stem the tide of refugees pouring into the EU and U.S.
The U.S. dependency on Saudi oil will continue to decrease, further reducing their influence on U.S. policy in the Middle East. Saudi failure in Syria, Yemen and keeping Iran contained will lead to further discontent in the kingdom. Financial woes, declining oil output and religious tensions will fray the fabric of their insular society and lead to a religious uprising and civil war.
Turkey has been pushed into the Russian sphere of influence by U.S. meddling. The country is falling apart. A civil war on par with the Syrian conflict is likely to breakout. Russia would likely support the dictator Erdogan against rebel forces supported by NATO. Religious and sectarian violence will tear the country apart and create further tensions between Russia and the U.S.
Israel will pre-emptively take action either covertly or overtly to damage the Iranian nuclear program without informing the U.S. of its actions in advance. This will be supported by the neo-con factions in the U.S. government, but will strain relations between Netanyahu and Trump.
The crackpot efforts at demonetization by Modi in India will destroy the Indian economy and cause societal upheaval among his 1.25 billion mostly poor citizens. With the eighth largest economy on the planet imploding, the economic reverberations across Southeast Asia will be enormous, possibly being the trigger for the next step down in this ongoing global recession. India's weakness could spur their enemy Pakistan to take aggressive border actions which could lead to military conflict.
With the fourth largest economy in the world in near permanent recession for the last twenty years, Japan's debt to GDP ratio of 230% portends financial collapse. In the midst of a demographic implosion, with negative interest rates, and a central bank buying all the newly issued debt and billions in stocks, Japan is a bug seeking a windshield. When this Ponzi economy crashes, the worldwide impact will be significant. If Japan doesn't trigger the global eruption, it will be a major contributor as the detonation spreads around the world.
China continues to steadily devalue the yuan against the USD and has eliminated all the gains since 2010. At the same time they have reduced their foreign reserves by over 20% since mid-2014. China's third largest economy in the world is slowing rapidly as more bad debt builds up in their system. They have a real estate bubble that makes the U.S. bubble seem like a pimple on the ass of a fly. A trade war initiated by Donald Trump would be the pin bursting the Chinese debt bubble. The situation could intensify into a bond selloff and panic. If derivative positions of over-leveraged or poorly-hedged globally systemic banks begin to unravel, cascading losses could lead to a vicious cycle and a tragic outcome.
Potential military conflict between China and Japan/U.S. over the islands in the South China Sea ramps up by the day. No one wants a war, but all it would take is a careless stupid act by a low level military officer to create a crisis. China is already bent out of shape by Trump acknowledging the existence of Taiwan. China is still essentially a dictatorship. The country is racked by corruption. An economic collapse could be met with distracting the public through a military adventure against Taiwan. These scenarios are unlikely in 2017, but not out of the question.
The most likely and potentially most dire event which could affect the world in 2017 is the disintegration of the EU. Greece is still a basket case. Italy is on the brink. The EU area economy barely registers positive after years of negative interest rates and debt issuance. Unemployment rates, excluding Germany, range between 10% and 25%. Brexit and Trump's victory portend a further shift to the right in the EU. The right wing party will win the French presidency. Merkel will be defeated in the upcoming elections. France and Italy are likely to have a referendum on leaving the EU. The departure of either will end the failed experiment. The insolvent Italian, French and German banks, specifically Deutsche Bank, will collapse in an EU disintegration scenario.
- The influx of Muslims into Europe is destroying their culture and leading to violence, terrorism, bloodshed, and now retribution. The left wingers have made a dreadful mistake in allowing hordes of Muslims to invade their countries. Their already fraying social welfare states are now completely bankrupt and citizens are afraid to go into the streets for fear of being attacked by members of the religion of peace. With the right gaining power in France, Germany and Italy, the blowback against Muslims will be violent and bloody. European cities will be rocked with violence throughout 2017.
"Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true." - Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow
I think it is pretty obvious my pessimism bias may have skewed my predictions for 2017. I've been pessimistic for the last eight years and the stock market is up 200%. I try to assess the world from a logical fact based frame of mind, but for the last eight years the world has been kept afloat by a combination of debt, delusions and denial.
The Deep State propaganda machine has convinced the masses we are living in normal times, despite the fact the Fed printed $3.5 trillion out of thin air and handed it to the criminal Wall Street banks, interest rates have been kept at or near zero for eight years, revelations from Snowden that we truly live in a surveillance state far exceeding Orwell's dystopian vision, the national debt doubling to $20 trillion, proof that all financial markets are rigged, undeclared wars being waged across the globe, and a reality TV star defeating a criminal to be president of the United States. Sounds pretty normal to me.
My confidence level in my predictions is quite low. But, if one or two of the low probability events comes to fruition, the financial and/or human devastation will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. I don't have an agenda in putting forth these predictions. I'm not selling anything or hawking stocks, bonds, or gold. I don't tout myself as an expert like the over-confident, arrogant pricks on CNBC, CNN, MSNBC, or FOX. I'm just trying to understand what is happening in this crazy universe. We live in an uncertain world. I believe an unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is the cornerstone of rationality and reason. Not acknowledging the role of luck or chance in the course of human events is setting you up for a fall.
Our countries, central banks, financial complex, military industrial complex, sick care complex, global mega-corporations, and government bureaucracies are ruled by men whose hubris, arrogance, greed and hunger for power has warped our world, producing unfathomable ill-gotten profits for the financial class who can abuse justice with impunity while the average man is bullied, pillaged and abused with disregard.
These well dressed, highly educated, sophisticated, soulless barbarians hide their evil deeds behind the trappings of culture, but they are revealed by their grotesque schemes, murderous policies, and war profits soaked in blood. When they lose control of this global Ponzi scheme, I hope they pay the ultimate price for their traitorous deeds. Will it happen in 2017? I don't know. But it will happen before this Fourth Turning climaxes.
"The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort - in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind's willingness to use it." - Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning