Unlucky Friday the 13th?

By: Brad Gudgeon | Thu, Jan 12, 2017
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The stock market is nearing the ten week cycle low from November 4th, 2016. The daily Bollinger bands are tightly squeezed together suggesting a break-out one way or the other (an expansion of volatility). The SPX broke the uptrend line today only to close back above the line. Normally, this is a sign of strength, but the OBV did not confirm the recent highs suggesting the smart money has already moved away from the market. I would call this a sign of weakness.

All it takes is a straw to break the proverbial camel's back and that straw could enter the picture on Friday the 13th. We had a similar set up on Friday September 9th, 2016. This is not a prediction, but rather a head's up.

S&P500 Daily Chart
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If a Friday the 13th event takes place (which is possible), I would then shift my March 2017 target to just down 5%, somewhere in the 2160's.

GDX looks as though it could fall hard here too into next week, just like early September. We caught the recent decline, then the up move into today (from yesterday), and then went short again near 23.18.

 


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Brad Gudgeon

Author: Brad Gudgeon

Brad Gudgeon
BluStar Market Timer
Blog
eaglesoveramerica.com

BluStar Market Timer Investment Philosophy: The stock market is currently in a technical Elliott Wave Bear Market Rally. It has been exhibiting A-B-C type waves instead of the normal 5 Waves since the market topped in 2000. According to "The Original Works of R.N. Elliott", we are due for a move down to about the S&P 500 442/443 area in the next few years. In my opinion, this is no longer a buy and hold market, but a traders' market. We mainly swing trade the market with funds and ETF's, but otherwise trade according to the market's disposition and to the traders' discretion. For the year 2014, BluStar Market Timer is rated #1 according to Timer Trac. http://www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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