Cycles for Gold and USD

By: Surf City | Mon, Jan 30, 2017
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Did Gold find a Trading Cycle Low last Friday? Perhaps. Silver was definitely leading the way as it often does at bottoms. But Silver also delivers many head-fakes and with the USD is due for a new Trading Cycle bounce, Gold will likely move lower next week.

My first chart on the USD, shows it is deep in its timing band to find a DCL or short term Trading Cycle Low. Thursday may well have been the TC Low I was looking for. If so, to confirm a new Trading Cycle the USD should close above the 10ema and then test/break my Red down trend cycle line.

I also show the USD in deep in its timing band to start its move into its next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL). If I am correct, the USD should top quickly to form a H&S pattern before moving into its next ICL. Next weeks trigger points for a cycle turn are the FMOC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

If the USD does bounce at least into the FMOC on Wed, then Gold and the PM Complex will likely move to a lower low next week, perhaps testing the 50% Fib level at 1172 (62% is at 1161). Gold is on day 28, however, and towards the later stages of its normal timing band to find a DCL or TC Low as well. And it I am correct that the USD will move into its longer IC Low, then Gold and PMs, should have a very bullish second Trading Cycle out of the Yearly Cycle Low in December.

Daly Gold Chart

 


 

Surf City

Author: Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.  He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55.

In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert's Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein's Stage 4 Market annalysis. Surf combines these skills to develop his unique "Cycle Price Channels." Some call them "Surf's ForkCycles."

In addition to Bressert, Surf also utilizes the Gann expertise of his colleague, Norvast to collaborate on possible turn dates. The combination of Bressert and Gann Cycle methodologies along with Surf's Price Channels allow the Subscribers to "Visualize" where Surf feels price is likely heading, topping or bottoming.

Surf is also an avid teacher and mentor who enjoys helping others learn the tools of the trade.

Surf's Up, Ride the Wave!

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