Daily Elliott Wave Analysis: Short-Term Alternate Wave Switch

By: Enda Glynn | Thu, Mar 9, 2017
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EURUSD

Current wave 3 down - below parity.

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EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart
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EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
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EUR/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: ECOFIN Meetings, Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference. USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

Howdy everyone!

I have switched to the alternate wave count today in EURUSD.
I had been expecting accceleration to the downside in a possible wave 'iii', but this simply has not materialised as of yet.
So the next best interpretation is an ongoing complex correction in wave 'ii'.
This wave count better accounts for the sideways action of the last few weeks.

The decline off mondays high is corrective looking and therefore is being viewed as part of a three wave rally in wave 'c' green.
This wave count expects another rise into the resistance at 1.0680 to complete.
From there I will begin looking for a steep decline in wave 'iii'.


GBPUSD

Wave 2 red, downtrend resumed.

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GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

GBP/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

A similar story is developing in Cable.
The declines of the last couple of weeks are more corrective in nature than a move back into the larger downtrend.
I have not yet switched to the alternate wave count, but the probability of that interpretation being the correct one has risen to 50% at this stage.
So, it is decision time for GBPUSD.
A move back above resistance at 1.2300 and the creation of a higher low will swing the vote in favor of the alternate count.


USDJPY

LONG

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USD/JPY 30-Minute Chart
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USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart
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USD/JPY Daily Chart
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My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BSI Manufacturing Index.  USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

I have also switched to the alternate count in USDJPY.
The reason being, it seems to fit the price action better after todays action.

Although we got the rally we were expecting, it looks more like a three wave affair off the low labelled wave 'a'
This weeks rally is being viewed as wave 'b' with wave 'c' to come in a flat correction.

Wave 'c' should again find support at 113.50 before turning up into wave 'iii' brown.


DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

Topping in wave (5)

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Dow Industrials 30-Minute Chart
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Dow Industrials 4-Hour Chart
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Dow Industrials Daily Chart
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My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

the action in the DOW today has prompted me to consider the recent all time high at 21171 as the final high in the bull market.
It may be early to say for sure, but the fact that the decline off the high is best counted in my view as a new impulse move to the downside is the first indication of the possible trend change.

The five wave form off the top, labelled in red,  seems to be completing as I write with a declining wedge as wave 5 red.
This should complete wave 'i' pink to the downside.
Wave 'ii' could rally into resistance at 21040, the previous 4th wave.
The all time high now becomes the bearish invalidation line, if the price crosses above this line again, it will be a terminal move.

The next action to watch for is a three wave rally in wave 'ii' pink.


GOLD

Current wave [B] - Long to 1550

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Gold 30-Minute Chart
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Gold 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Gold Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m.

GOLD declined into the lower trendline again and reached a low of 1206.56 today.
This market is looking seriously oversold right now with the RSI reaching 22.96, a new 3 month low.

Every market indicator I follow along with the wave count are all pointing up from here.
Wave (c) seems to have completed a clear 5 wave pattern to the downsode off the wave (b) high.
So the next thing to watch for is the creation of a higher low in a 5/3 wave structure off nearby lows.
This will be the first signal of a turn into wave [iii] green.

 


 

Enda Glynn

Author: Enda Glynn

Enda Glynn
bullwaves.com

Enda Glynn

I class myself as an Elliott wave trader now, but that's not how I started out though! It took me a long time and a whole lot of pain, to finally understand what drives the price and how to use Elliott Wave correctly!

I have been trading for years and I have tested every trading system and strategy under the sun! I used to pick entry points at random based on emotion or news events or something I heard on TV! It did not take long to destroy my capital! I have blown out my account balance before, and I had to start again,

from scratch!

Believe me, I am well acquainted with failure in trading! Im sure that the above scenario is pretty familiar to you too. We have all been there. About 10 years ago I discovered The Elliott wave Principle and its method of market analysis. Since then, I have spent years learning, testing and trading, using the wave principle as the backbone of my analysis. I even went to college to study macroeconomics and econometrics. I graduated with honours degree back in 2012. The financial market knowledge and statistical edge I gained after my degree added another level to my trading. The difference in my trading approach using the wave principle, compared to before, is like night and day.

The price started to move "my way" more and more often. The wave model, offers me a lens to view market action through, which no other form of analysis can do. Elliott wave analysis, helps me answer four key questions when I am contemplating a trade:

• What direction the price is trending.
• How far is this trend likely to go.
• Where can I enter a trade with the best risk reward ratio.
• And most importantly, at what point am I definitely wrong?!

The wave principle helps me improve my trade entry, tighten up my money management and in turn increase profitability. Seeing the waves unfold before your eyes is a very rewarding experience, It is almost like peering into the future! That is how the wave principle helps my trading, and that is why the wave principle will improve your trading. It took a long time to finally master Elliott Wave Principle. After over a decade of hard work, research and learning I can call myself an expert in the field. I regularly contribute to major trading communities at FXStreet, Forex Factory, Traders Planet. I am a chief Elliott Wave analyst at HumbleTraders.

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