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Gold Intermediate Cycle Update

By: Surf City | Wednesday, February 15, 2017

NOTHING is certain or guaranteed in Markets.... ever. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a charlatan.

That said, within Bressert's Cycle framework the norm is that a new Intermediate Cycle in any asset should test or breach the Intermediate Cycle downtrend before topping and those are my expectations based on my current analysis on both Gold and the USD.

With that as background, my Gold chart shows these expectations.

An Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) is the best time to buy any asset given that you sold near the top and have capital to deploy along with the mental courage to pull the trigger at the low. Most Traders buy near highs and sell in despair near ICLs. Cycle analysis is the tool we need to understand bearish investor sentiment at market lows in order to have the courage to buy at those cycle lows when most are selling in panic.

"When your Yelling, you should be Selling and when you are Crying, you should be Buying." That is, in essence, what this service is all about if you stick with me (...last year was my best trading year ever). My goal is to be buying when there is blood in the streets. Will you have the courage to follow?

So this is one reason I kept the recent Gold position additions in GDX and AGQ rather small as we are already 1.5 months into a new Intermediate Cycle and the miners are already up over 34%. This is NOT your best entry point. Ok, enough posturing and onto the Chart.

Gold is bouncing along above the 10ema and should move higher out of a Half Cycle Low if my analysis is correct. My plan is to take profits when I see signs of topping, probably up near the 1250 to 1260 level where I expect Trading Cycle #2 to top out. Out of the TC2 low, will TC3 make a higher high? It may well be possible but Time will tell...

 

Author: Surf City

Surf City

Surf City is 60-year-old retired Information Technology Executive and Software start-up Entrepreneur living near the beach in California.  He has been an active investor and trader since the mid-1980s. Analytical by nature, his sound investments over the years allowed him to retire at a relatively early age of 55.

In addition to the standard Technical Analysis tools of Edwards and Magee, Surf is a disciple of Walter Bressert's Cycle Methodology and Stan Weinstein's Stage 4 Market annalysis. Surf combines these skills to develop his unique "Cycle Price Channels." Some call them "Surf's ForkCycles."

In addition to Bressert, Surf also utilizes the Gann expertise of his colleague, Norvast to collaborate on possible turn dates. The combination of Bressert and Gann Cycle methodologies along with Surf's Price Channels allow the Subscribers to "Visualize" where Surf feels price is likely heading, topping or bottoming.

Surf is also an avid teacher and mentor who enjoys helping others learn the tools of the trade.

Surf's Up, Ride the Wave!

Copyright; © 2017 Surf City