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The Flash Crash Cycle is Coming

By: Ian Thijm | Friday, March 31, 2017

The May 6 2010 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I first discovered a 360 Trading Day (TD, Gann's 360 degrees) cycle and posted it on my public blog, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash Crash (FC) cycle of Lows.

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows. At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.


The dominant Flash Crash 360 TD / 75 week Cycle:

S&P500 Chart 1
Larger Image

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks
04/14/00L – June 2017 = 12 X 360.00 TD
04/14/00L – July 2017 = 12 X 75 weeks

S&P500 Chart 2
Larger Image


The Flash Crash Lows were preceded by an average 18% decline:

  1. 04/14/00 Crash Low saw a 213.57 SP decline, a 14% decline.
  2. 09/21/01 Crash Low saw a 371.18 SP decline, a 28% decline.
  3. 03/12/13 major Low saw a 165.38 SP decline, a 17% decline
  4. 08/13/04 major Low saw a 102.51 SP decline, a 9% decline.
  5. 11/21/08 Crash Low saw a 699.36 SP decline, a 49% decline
  6. 05/06/10 Flash Crash saw a 139.34 SP decline, a 12% decline
  7. 10/04/11 Crash Low saw a 295.81 SP decline, a 22% decline.
  8. 01/20/16 Crash Low saw a 322.43 SP decline, a 15% decline.


The exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated by only 2 to 8 TD:

04/14/00L +360 TD X 1 = 09/21/01 Crash Low, + 2 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 2 = 03/12/03 Major Low, - 7 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 3 = 08/13/04 Major Low, - 6 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 6 = 11/21/08 Crash Low, - 4 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 7 = 05/06/10 Flash Crash, - 8 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 8 = 10/04/11 Crash Low, – 5 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 11 = 01/20/16 Crash Low, – 4 TD


Swing High before the Flash Crash Low

03/24/00H – 04/14/00L = 021 CD / 0.7 Months
05/22/01H – 09/21/01L = 122 CD / 4.0 months
12/02/02H – 03/12/03L = 100 CD / 3.3 months
06/24/04H – 08/13/04L = 050 CD / 1.7 Months
08/11/08H – 11/21/08L = 102 CD / 3.4 Months
04/26/10H – 07/01/10L = 066 CD / 2.2 Months
07/07/11H – 10/04/11L = 089 CD / 2.9 Months
11/03/15H – 01/20/16L = 078 CD / 2.6 Months

The declines from the swing High to the Flash crash Lows have averaged 78.5 CD or 2.6 Months +/-. The majority has varied from 2.2–3.4 months. This means we should top out an average of 2 ½ months before the projected June-July Flash Crash Lows.


The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Flash crash Cycle

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-biblical-7-year-cycle-and-360-td.html

Forecasted on 12/17/14 (see link above):

"The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016."

5 X 360 TD Flash Crash cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:

1. 10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD
2. 08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
3. 03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
4. 03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
5. 09/21/01L – 11/21/08L = 1805 TD
6. 09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
7. 08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
8. 11/21/08L – 01/20/16L = 1800 TD

Conclusion: The Flash Crash Cycle of Lows pinpointed 8 major crash Lows, in the past 17 years, with an 18% average decline and has deviated maximum 2-8 TD from its exact 360 TD cycle. It has a 67% chance of seeing a decline into it. The 1800 TD/ 7 Year Cycle is 5 X 360 TD cycle, which has also has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past, including the recent 1/20/16 Low. If we are going to see a Flash Crash we should see a major swing High about 2 ½ months before we see a sharp 18% decline into the June-July Flash Crash Lows. That means we should top out in April or even as early as today's 3/30-31 cycle High. You won't want to miss the upcoming decline. Be forewarned and be prepared.

 

Author: Ian Thijm

Ian Thijm BSc, MBA
Raj Times and Cycles

My first experience with the Stock-markets was during my MBA in August 1987, right before the 87 crash. Needless to say I fell in love with the markets and studied everything I could on Timing and Cycles in the Markets, including Gann, Bayer, Baumring, Astrology, Geometry, etc. Although I loved the markets, the markets didn't love me the 1st 7 years. Then I found a unique "Ezekiel Wheel" (Symmetry Point Cycle) based on the works of James Brock and in October 1994, I turned $5000 into over $112,000 in one month. I thought I had found the Golden Key to unlock all the market profits, but the markets again humbled me. I spent the next 7 years studying and researching various unique Time and Cycle methods. Then in June 2000, I met my Partner and I became a full time Investment Manager. Life, like Markets goes through Cycles and the next 7 years, I had the most valuable, enriching lessons in my life with Markets, People and managing Money. It was very enlightening. This brings us to the present day, where I feel the need to share and teach what I have learned and that is what this blog and website is all about. I hope it is worthwhile to you.

Copyright © 2013-2017 Ian Thijm