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Bear Ambush

The Best Defense… is Offense...

Will he, or won't he… and if he does, which he will at some point, by how much? We are talking about Mr. Greenspan and interest rates, if you haven't guessed. If the FOMC (Greenspan's gang) does decide to cut interest rates, it will be their last, and it will not work to change a darn thing. The window is shut, and the Bull Raid is off. It (the inevitable rate cut) will now be a defensive policy, so long as there is bearish momentum.

REIT
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Japanese Stocks
Tokyo NIKKEI

WEEKLY GLOBAL MARKET REVIEW

August 1 to August 8 LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
Dow Industrials 10294 - 216 - 2.1%
SP500 1184 - 32 - 2.7%
Nasdaq Comp 1966 - 102 - 4.9%
TSE 300 7654 - 87 - 1.1%
Euro Top 100 300 - 5 - 1.7%
FTSE 100 5477 - 68 - 1.2%
Nikkei 12164 + 205 + 1.7%
Best US Stock Sectors
REIT's (Real Estate) 149.3 + 2.5 + 1.7%
XAU Gold Share Index 53.3 + 0.4 + 0.8%
Phili Bank Index 905.5 - 6.5 - 0.7%
S&P Retail Index 896.9 - 8.2 - 0.9%
Forest/Paper Products 338.9 - 4.1 - 1.2%
Put/Call 82 + 24  
Currencies
US Dollar Index 116.55 0.00 0.0%
Dollar / Euro 112.91 - 0.70 - 0.6%
Dollar / Yen 123.31 - 0.79 - 0.6%
Commodities and Gold Ratios
CRB 200.20 - 1.10 - 0.5%
Crude 27.54 + 0.77 + 2.9%
Gold (vs dollar) 267.90 + 0.50 + 0.2%
Gold/Silver 64.55 + 1.33 + 2.1%
Gold/Oil 9.73 - 0.26 - 2.6%
Gold/CRB 1.34 + 0.01 + 0.8%

Though it might change one thing:

We're looking for Gold, Grain prices, and the Energy complex, to lead the CRB out of its corrective phase, and to confirm the July 10th dollar reversal. A quick move past the 210 handle ought to be enough to rally the bulls - Ed Bugos

We said that twelve days ago. Thank the spirit of Mises that we didn't say Palladium, or something.

Jumpin' Joseph, what a nightmare it has been for the PGM's (platinum / palladium), and also for the other metals, excluding Gold prices, which have been relatively firm but choppy in trade.

Platinum
October Platinum - 4 months
Palladium
September Palladium - 4 months

Still, since we are so bullish on the CRB, the accelerating sell off in practically all of the metals prompted a subscriber to ask us just why are Platinum/Palladium going down, and whether we thought that the trend could reverse itself?

Good question, we said, scratching our heads… how the hell should we know? This is the GOLDenbar report… just kidding Mark. As far as Copper, and some of the other industrial metals go, we have already noted the sensitivity of producers to energy costs, and have gone so far as to speculate Phelps Dodge might be forced to shut down marginal production, particularly if copper prices fall while energy prices rise.

I do not see any reason to change that diagnosis. Furthermore, if oil and gas prices aren't about to break out here then nothing is, except gold, which is always possible of course.

Crude Light
September Crude - 6 months
Unleaded Gasoline
September Gasoline - 6 months

This week, in the GIC, the outlook for stock markets, and...

  • An analysis of the structure of the PGM (Platinum Group Metals) market
  • Brief discussion of the potential impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the global economy and PGM demand
  • Is Gold still outperforming the stock market?
  • An overview of the month's economic news
  • A well timed rumor, Rubin style
  • Is this bull market simply exhausted?

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