Scenario probabilities are seemingly changing by the week in recent times as new facts and interventions emerge ... Absolutely no one seems to be anticipating a "V" type recovery; everyone supposedly hunkered down for a long "L-type" downturn; openly and acceptantly making comparisons to the last Great Depression. It is precisely this uniform pessimism that can be expected to generate some of the largest government spending stimulus packages in history. And, this may apply around the globe. For this very reason as well as other contributing factors, a surprise economic strengthening could be expected to develop in 2nd half 2009. We think it will be of temporary duration. Yet, markets can be expected to celebrate in advance. That may be the time to again re-adjusted portfolio risks downward.
