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Dear (sweet) Oil

Markets have character. Our job is to spot it. Sometimes they are deceptive and sometimes they are very revealing. This is the objective of technical analysis, and it differs with a statistical analysis, which strives precisely to preclude any unscientific interpretation.

Analysts cannot say that one is better than the other at predicting the future course of events. In fact, neither is particularly good at this endeavor. You and I may be, but these tools are just that. We use them in order to help us figure out what to do next. Others use them to try and help you figure out what they want you to.

But statistical analysis is particularly difficult to apply to capital markets because few events are like the other. In fact, the only way they may be similar is in the way the market behaves in their presence.

Crude Curve
What does the positive contango between the Nov '01 / Feb '02 contract mean?

SEPTEMBER
GLOBAL MARKET REVIEW

Aug 24 - Sep 26 LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
Dow 8567 - 1856 17.8%
SP500 1007 - 178 15.0%
Nasdaq Comp 1464 - 453 23.6%
TSE 300 6655 - 975 12.8%
Euro Top 100 245 - 47 16.1%
FTSE 100 4682 - 790 14.4%
Nikkei 9642 - 1524 13.7%
Best Performing U.S. Equity Sectors
XAU Gold Miners Index 57.77 - 0.49 0.8%
Telecom Index (XTC) 825.65 - 46.18 5.3%
Insurance Index 676.23 - 43.09 6.0%
Pharmaceuticals / Drug Stocks 374.30 - 24.93 6.2%
Hospitals Index 331.25 - 25.32 7.1%
Interest Rates
10 yr US Yields 4.64% - 0.27 5.6%
30 yr US Yields 5.50% + 0.06 1.1%
Commodities
CRB 190.57 - 8.98 4.5%
West Texas Intermediate Crude 21.81 - 5.09 18.9%
Gold (vs dollar) 291 + 18 6.6%
Silver 4.62 + 0.38 9.0%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 112.26 - 1.07 0.9%
Dollar / Euro 1.085 - 0.013 1.2%
Dollar / Yen 117.20 - 1.67 1.4%
Ratios
Gold/Silver 63.0 - 1.4 2.2%
Gold/Oil 13.3 + 3.1 30.4%
Gold/CRB 1.52 + 0.15 11.0%

In This Week's Issue (SUBSCRIBERS ONLY):

  • Where will the V turn up?
  • Will there be a bounce in the Dow?
  • Crisis management and similar historic events...
  • Demand shocks and their impact on oil consumption...
  • M. King Hubbert predicts the end to cheap oil, for the world, 45 years ago, and he's been right all along...
  • Eddie George, Governor of the Bank of England, on the challenges affecting central banking policy in the new millennium.

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