The title says it all, but at the end of the day (or more accurately, at the end of the week and a half -on average), they are still just bear market rallies).
We have identified 5 bear market rallies based on 3-day, 5-day, 7-day and 10-day cumulative return. On an average bear market rallies last for 9 days with an average gain of 16% from trough-to-peak.This most recent bear rally run has been the most violent, and the largest single move in the history of the markets. That means that it is a possibility the bear market is over - not! I have run multiple scenario analyses, though, just to be sure.
Bear market rallies | Start date | End date | Number of days | % Change |
1 | 9-Mar-09 | 23-Mar-09 | 11.0 | 21.6% |
2 | 20-Jan-09 | 28-Jan-09 | 7.0 | 8.6% |
3 | 20-Nov-08 | 8-Dec-08 | 12.0 | 20.9% |
4 | 27-Oct-08 | 4-Nov-08 | 7.0 | 18.5% |
5 | 10-Oct-08 | 20-Oct-08 | 7.0 | 9.6% |
Average | 8.8 | 15.8% |
