• 509 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 509 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 511 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 911 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 916 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 918 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 921 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 921 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 922 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 924 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 924 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 928 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 928 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 929 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 931 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 932 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 935 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 936 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 936 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 938 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Similarities with the 2002 Bear Low

Market keeps behaving like 2002 Venus retro low


The Market has behaved very much like the last Venus retro low of Oct 10, 02, and I am quite displeased for not paying closer attention to it, instead of expecting a pull back for the different Put/Call values than in 2002. It will now stay prominently in the update until it stops working, and the pull back should come this week with rebounds late in the week. Since we only made a marginal new high in 2002, it is also likely that we have already seen most of the gains for this rally.



Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

Moon cycles are negative into mid April


Statistically the New Moon and the Moon in Leo are highs and we rallied into both of them. The Moon cycles invert at times but the last large turns have occurred near the Moon cycles and we should drop into the Full Moon if this behavior continues.


Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

A crash alignment for the 2002 and 2008 lows


When looking at the lows from a longer term perspective, a good fit is found by aligning the crash lows of July 02 and October 08 with a 2/3 scale. From the crash low in July 02, the low was tested twice successfully 2.5 and 7.5 months later by establishing a 7.5 month base between 800 and 950. Since the October 08 crash lows, we failed to hold the lows twice 1.7 and 5.1 months later and stayed within a descending parallel channel which is the definition of a down trend. We also saw a lot more fear back in 2002, and the breakout was preceded by a Tick breakout one month before the price breakout, and we have not seen this yet. The next 1.7 month cycle low is due near the New Moon of April 24th which also happens to be a potential Cardinal Panic Moon and we should at least head lower in April.



Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

A Venus retro alignment for the 2002 and 2009 lows


This rally has already moved up 27% and exceeded the 24% rebound from the 2002 low, and is behaving more like a bear market rally than a lasting low like in 2002. If we continue to follow this pattern, we should see little gains from here and start a decline into late April for the 1.7 month cycle low on the right, or into late May for the 2.5 month cycle low below, and it is likely to be deeper than it was in December 02 which came after a multi year low and had even stronger seasonality supporting the market than now.



Courtesy of StockCharts.com

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment