7/5/2009 9:20:33 AM
Here's our call...
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Stock Barometer Analysis
The Barometer remains in Buy "Support" Mode.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday is day 6 in our UP cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
We've been looking for a rally into the 2nd and a sharp move lower into the 17th. Thursday's sharp move lower could as easily have marked a top, as it could have marked a bottom and a move up into the 17th. So we'll wait for some confirmation as seasonality could trump here. See chart below.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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Spread Indicators
Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
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US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
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OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
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Supporting Secondary Indicator
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Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode. We're cautious though. As noted above, we've been looking for the market to move higher into 7/2 followed by a retracement into 7/17. That move looks to have initiated on Thursday, but I'd like to see more confirmation of that move lower in the days to come. As you can see from the seasonality chart below (which the market has been following rather closely) we could see another thrust higher.
On the other side of that, we have the weekly cycles with seasonality removed and the range adjusted somewhat. This looks to be calling a move lower into the middle of July (note these cycles are less precise, and more big picture).
I hope you liked this weekend's article. As you can see, calling the market is as much art as science (ok, with a splattering of luck). It's probably the most humbling job out there. To me the key to success in the financial markets is not to bet too much on one strategy and one call. As much as you want to diversify across asset classes, you also want to diversify with strategies. Sure it means more accounts (as I'd never recommend combining strategies in one account) - but it will help you change your mentality when you're in a certain account that has a specific set of rules.
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Regards,
