• 528 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 529 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 530 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 930 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 935 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 937 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 940 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 940 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 941 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 943 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 943 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 947 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 947 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 948 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 950 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 951 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 954 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 955 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 955 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 957 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

A Deflationary Impulse Would be a Catalyst for Gold Stocks

While Gold is a hedge for inflation and deflation, that doesn't mean that gold stocks are a hedge or outperformer in either environment. As we wrote last year, gold stocks tend to perform better when deflation is the concern.

The reason is two fold. First, Gold is a leading indicator of inflation and commodity prices. Gold outperforms ahead of actual price inflation. The second reason is that Gold's outperformance, allows margin expansion for the gold producers. When inflation hits the economy, commodities (and sometimes stocks) will outperform Gold. Also, the inflation (especially rising oil) cuts into the margins of gold producers

All of this is very obvious when looking at some charts.

In the chart below we show two ratios: Gold Stocks/Commodity Stocks and Gold Stocks/Gold. Note the strong outperformance of gold stocks during periods of economic contraction and/or deflationary concerns.

$HUI:$CRX

We can get an idea of the outlook for the HUI/Gold ratio by tracking some ratios. In the chart we show Gold/Oil and Gold/Gyx, a proxy for industrial-related costs. Note that while these ratios usually trend in the same direction (with HUI/Gold), they actually can be a leading indicator.

$HUI:$GOLD

In terms of the technicals, the gold stocks are in position for a major breakout sometime this year. In the following chart we show the HUI index along with the XGD.to (Canadian ETF).

$HUI

Conclusion

The gold stocks are in position for a major breakout in 2010. For a sustainable breakout, the current trends in the capital markets need to at least shift, if not change. The precious metals sector has held up well as stocks, commodities and corporate bonds have recovered and sustained their recovery. However, as long as those assets continue to be strong, how will the gold stocks forge the type of breakout suggested by the charts? Hence, a deflationary impulse, even a slight one, could serve to be a major catalyst.

Such an impulse, while initially positive for Treasuries, would exacerbate the medium to intermediate term outlook, as deficits would worsen. Meanwhile, the margins of gold producers are already strong. A deflationary impulse would ultimately result in Gold outperforming its "input costs" and so margins would expand even further.

For more of this kind of analysis and for actionable information, and gold/silver stock analysis, consider a 14-day trial to our premium service, by visiting: http://www.thedailygold.com/newsletter.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment